Monday, September 14, 2009

Ruling Socialist party has slight edge ahead of vote

       Portugal's ruling Socialists were slightly ahead in two opinion polls published on Saturday two weeks before a parliamentary election, but fell short of the absolute majority they have enjoyed the past four years.
       In both polls, the margin of error is larger than the difference between the Socialists and the centre-right PSD party.It means the PSD could still garner more votes in the Sept 27 ballot, also short of a working majority.
       In a TV debate with Socialist Prime Minister Jose Socrates, PSD leader Manuela Ferreira Leite said that "a political understanding with Socrates is out of the question". She said she would not mind forming a minority government if her party won the ballot.
       "I am not totally convinced that an absolute majority is needed. There have been minority governments in the past that governed through the end of their term," she said.
       Some analysts do not rule out a central bloc with the participation of the two main parties, and say President Anibal Cavaco Silva may try to broker such a coalition if no party emerges with a clear mandate. Mr Socrates avoided commenting on any possible cooperation with the PSD, saying only:"I am not a candidate against anyone."
       Analysts said disagreements over economic and social issues and mutual accusations made in the debate were nothing new and were unlikely to tip the balance either way.
       "I don't think Socrates convinced any left-wing undecideds to vote for him,which is what he had to do to extend the lead. Otherwise, the debate will hardly have any impact on the voting pattern,"analyst Antonio Costa Pinto said
       The opinion polls showed conflicting trends when compared to the previous surveys in July, the former showing the Socialists gaining 1.4 percentage points to 33.6%. Another poll showed the voting intentions for the Socialists dropping slightly to 35.3%. Portuguese opinion polls failed to predict the 2005 majority won by the Socialists. The PSD won the European elections in June, with 31.7%against 26.6% for the Socialists, confounding most expectations.

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