Higher-than-expected growth in the Home building market drives its value to hit 11 billion Baht in 2009.

Home building market is poised to grow further in 2009 after its combined market value exceeded its target of 11 billion Baht. With improving economy, a research finding that 50% of the targets plan to build new homes in 2010 as well as the fact that home building prices are revised up from 1-2 million Baht to 2-3 million Baht range, the market value in 2010 is now projected at 12 billion Baht.


Mr. Panthep Tharnchitikul, President of the Home Building Association, reveals today that the home building market value in 2009 is expected to grow 12% YoY from 9.8 billion Baht in 2008 to 11 billion Baht in 2009, which is 5% higher than its target of 10.5 billion Baht. Looking backward, the 1H09 market was adversely hit by local economic downturn and political stalemate, which resulted in lower sales figure for many companies, while the market well recovered in the 2H09, especially, when the Home Building Association staged the Home Builder 2009 to help stimulate sales. With total registered on-site sales of 2.4 billion Baht, the figure was a record-high in its history and significantly helped contribute to the higher-than-expected growth of the home building market in 2009.

In 2010, it is expected that the home building market would grow 9-10% YoY to 12 billion Baht mainly due to several improving economic figures. While the mode prices found at the Home Builder 2009 were up from 1-2 million Baht in 2007-2008 to 2-3 million Baht range in 2009, the average on-site price at the Home Builder 2009 was up from 4.3 and 4.2 million Baht in 2007 and 2008 respectively to 4.7 million Baht in 2009.

“Home building market outlook has significantly improved since mid of last year partially due to improving economy, which resulted in rising consumer confidence. At the same time, many home building companies have also launched more marketing activities in the 2H09. This coupled with the staging of the Association’s Home Builder 2009 significantly help reverse the decreasing purchasing power in the 1H09 back on track. Furthermore, according to a research conducted at the Home Builder 2009, it is found that about 50% of the targets have plans to build new home in 2010, which makes us believe that the home building market in 2010 would continue to grow as we expected.” Mr. Panthep said.

Mr. Panthep further added that though the Association’s guidelines and policy in 2010 would have to wait for the appointment of a new President and an executive committee, which were expected in January 2010 after the election on November 27, 2009, he believed that the Association would maintain its main policy and commitment to upgrading the standard of the Home Building business so that it is widely accepted by the consumer as well as the general public as a whole.

Major powers fret over future as Irish vote on Lisbon treaty

       Europes big powers are banking on Irish voters backing reforms to make the European Union a stronger player on the world stage and avert a crisis they fear could paralyse the 27-nation bloc.
       Irish approval for the EUs Lisbon treaty in a referendum on Friday would clear an obstacle to streamlining decision-making and put pressure on the Polish and Czech presidents to follow other EU leaders by signing it into law.Rejection could delay moves towards closer EU integration and enlargement,and undermine public and investor confidence, at least briefly hitting the euro currency.Theres a sense its going to be a Yes vote, said Hugo Brady, of the Centre for European Reform think tank.
       A Yes vote would allow the EU to improve the way it makes decisions,particularly in foreign policy, he added in a research note.A No vote would lead to recrimination, policy paralysis and probably a freeze on further EU enlargement.
       If the treaty is rejected, he said, leaders would be divided and distracted from urgent tasks such as responding effectively to the global economic crisis and making a success of talks on a new global deal to combat climate change.
       Plans to develop the EU could be frozen and the bloc could struggle to project itself as a global economic power.Investors could sell off the euro because of uncertainty about Europes future.
       Opinion polls suggest Irish voters will back the Lisbon treaty, partly because many say being in the EU has helped Ireland through the global economic crisis.
       But leaders of EU states that have already backed the treaty are taking nothing for granted because Ireland has already rejected it once, in June 2008,and are avoiding saying anything that might be seen as interference and cause a voter backlash.Its not all over yet,said Roland Freudenstein, a political analyst at the Centre for European Studies.
       The Lisbon treaty was drawn up after Dutch and French voters rejected a draft EU constitution in 2005. It would supercede the Nice treaty, agreed in 2000 to help cope with enlargement.
       If ratified by all EU states, the Lisbon treaty would amend voting rules to ease decision-making, which has become unwieldy following the accession of 12 countries since 2004.
       It would also create two new posts a president of the European Council of EU states leaders and a high represen-tative for foreign affairs.
       Even Irish support would not clear all obstacles to the treaty going into force because Polish President Lech Kaczynski and Czech President Vaclav Klaus have so far refused to sign it.
       A Yes would in effect clear two obstacles, Ireland and Poland, because Kaczynski says he will sign the treaty if Ireland backs it. Whether Klaus would then back it is less clear, Mr Freudenstein said.If theres a No vote, all dynamism would be lost. Wed talk ourselves into some kind of paralysis.
       Mr Klaus could try to hold out until Britain holds a parliamentary election next year which is expected to be won by the Conservative Party, his allies.
       The EU could find other ways to push through reforms, just as it did after the draft constitution was rejected in 2005.
       But the changes could be delayed for years at a time when unity is being sought to maintain Europes influence in the new world order that is taking shape following the economic crisis.
       Europe is facing stark choices in todays interdependent world. Either we work together to rise to the challenges.Or we condemn ourselves to irrelevance,said Jose Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission.

Probe voids thousands of Karzai votes

       Fraud investigators threw out hundreds of thousands of votes for President Hamid Karzai in the country's disputed August election,according to a report released yesterday.
       The findings set the stage for a run-off between him and his top challenger.
       It was unclear, however, whether the Independent Election Commission (IEC) would accept the findings of the UN-backed fraud panel and announce a run-off. Mr Karzai's spokesman said it was too soon to make a judgment based on the figures released by the panel.
       Two international officials familiar with the investigation said that the findings showed Mr Karzai falling below the 50% threshold needed to avoid a run-off with his chief rival,former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah.
       Preliminary results released last month showed Mr Karzai winning the Aug 20 election with more than 54%. However, allegations of widespread fraud prompted the investigation by the UN-backed Electoral Complaints Commission and held up a final proclamation of a winner.
       Investigators did not release enough figures to allow for an independent judgment, but it was clear that hundreds of thousands of Karzai votes were voided.
       In all, more than five million votes were cast in the election.
       "I don't think we can make any judgment based on the figures announced today," Karzai campaign spokesman Waheed Omar said.
       That has raised fears that the Karzai-influenced election commission may refuse to call for a run-off - further delaying formation of a government that the US believes is needed to help combat the growing Taliban insurgency.
       A protracted crisis could also lead to political unrest.
       Hundreds of Karzai supporters protested in the south over the weekend,calling for the electoral commission to release results quickly and saying they will reject a second round.
       They gathered in the main street of the southeastern city of Spin Boldak on Sunday, shouting "We want the result!" and "Karzai is our leader!"
       Ali Shah Khan, a tribal leader from the area, said the protesters believed the August vote was fair and that foreigners were delaying the results to unseat Mr Karzai.
       "We know they don't want President Karzai because he is a strong leader and he is working only for the people of Afghanistan," Mr Khan said."The foreign countries want a weak leader for Afghanistan. After that they can do whatever they want."
       The White House says President Barack Obama will not send more US troops until a credible government is in place.
       French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner and US Senator John Kerry,chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, were in Kabul last weekend urging the Afghans to resolve the standoff quickly.
       Abdullah campaign spokesman Fazel Sancharaki said the UN-backed panel "is under threat" from Mr Karzai. He alleged the president was urging the IEC not to accept the results of the fraud probe.

AFGAHN AUTHORITIES DRAG THEIR FEET ON VOTE FRAUD

       Two months after Afghans voted in controversial presidential elections, authorities were still wrangling yesterday over whether another poll is needed amid tense negotiations between rival candidates.
       Officials in Kabul said Afghan politicians and their international backers have been involved in days of vigorous horse-trading in the hope of averting a run-off, which many fear could further destabilise the fragile country.
       Afghanistan's August-20 election has been overshadowed by allegations of fraud, mostly against President Hamid Karzai, including findings by EU observers that one quarter of all votes, or 1.5 million, were suspicious.
       Karzai leads preliminary results with around 55 per cent of the vote. He needs 50 per cent plus one vote to be declared the winner.
       His main rival Abdullah Abdullah has around 28 per cent.
       An official announcement - winner or run-off - will be made by the Independent Election Commission (IEC), widely regarded as pro-Karzai, which acts on the orders of the UN-approved Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC).
       ECC officials had been expected to deliver their roders, based on the finding of investigations into ballot-stuffing, to the IEC yesterday. The IEC is constitutionally bound to obey the orders. But officials, including an IEC source, said only informal meetings had taken place in which ECC members explained how they reached their conclusions.
       The officials said the ECC could make its decision public as early as yesterday, but the IEC is now expected to delay its announcement for some days.
       "The issue is that the IEC will not accept that ECC decisions and they are heading for a head-on collision and political chaos," another diplomat said, adding: "This means further delays in the final sresult."

Ben Bongo's poll win confirmed

       Gabon's Constitutional Court rejected on Monday challenges launched by the opposition to Ali Ben Bongo's victory in an August presidential election, paving the way for Mr Ben Bongo to replace his father as president.
       "The election of Ali Ben Bongo Ondimba as president of the Republic of Gabon is confirmed," Court President Marie Madeleine Mborantsuo, said in a decision read out on state television on Monday evening.
       According to the final tally, Mr Ben Bongo scored 41.8% of the vote.

Electorate votes in test for Medvedev's pledge to boost democracy

       President Dmitry Medvedev faced a test of his pledge to boost Russian democracy yesterday when polls opened for 30 million voters in regional elections the opposition say have been rigged.
       Mr Medvedev has promised to break the near-monopoly of ruling party United Russia over the political system. Critics say democracy was undermined by his predecessor Vladimir Putin, now prime minister, and the opposition says the situation has deteriorated since Mr Medvedev came to power in May 2008.
       "Political competition is practically zero," said Liliya Shibanova, head of independent poll watchdog Golos."Medvedev says we need competition,we need a multi-party system, but election results show the exact opposite."
       Mayoral, regional and district elections are being held in 76 of Russia's 83 regions, but the opposition has been scathing of elections to the Moscow council. Six parties were registered for yesterday's Moscow vote, but the only posters in the city are for United Russia.
       "Everything is decided in advance,"said teacher Jay Komisarzhevskaya."I haven't voted for 10 years."

Unruffled Angela Merkel stays above election fray

       Maybe this is why Chancellor Angela Merkel is so closed. In East Germany she learned for a long time never to show her own opinion.
       German Chancellor Angela Merkel,of the Christian Democrats (CDU),at times seems impervious to the fact that an election campaign is going on around her.
       Brushing aside criticism from political opponents and even demands within her own party to infuse energy into a lacklustre election campaign, Ms Merkel has retained her presidential calm at the helm of Europe's most populous country and largest economy.
       "Volume and insulting other people should not be the measure by which the seriousness of the election campaign should be judged," Ms Merkel said, swatting away the criticisms.
       The chancellor's popularity - which far outstrips that of her party - has remained undented by state elections this month in which the CDU suffered serious setbacks.
       In a poll conducted by ARD television,57% said they would elect Ms Merkel directly if they could, while only 28%said they would pick SPD candidate Frank-Walter Steinmeier.
       The CDU stands to gain 35-37% of the Sept 27 vote, compared to around 23% for the Social Democrats (SPD) according to recent polls.
       Ms Merkel's CDU hopes the election will return a sufficient majority to ditch the so-called grand coalition with the SPD, in favour of a new pro-market partnership with the Free Democrats (FDP).
       Unostentatious in her sensible trouser suits and no-nonsense fringe, the chancellor's popularity stems from her quiet determination to get on with the job.
       "This humble appearance, and the fact that she doesn't stage things, that is her actual staging," said Gerd Langguth,a political scientist and biographer of Angela Merkel. At the same time, Mr Langguth says Ms Merkel's upbringing under a totalitarian East German regime may have taught her to mask her true thoughts."Maybe this is why Merkel is so closed," Mr Langguth said."In East Germany she learned for a long time never to show her own opinion."
       Angela Merkel has tried to reveal her personal side, proclaiming a love of the Beatles and Rolling Stones, and telling a German women's magazine that she writes the shopping list for her mediashy husband, quantum chemist Joachim Sauer. The daughter of a protestant priest,Angela was born near Hamburg in 1954,and moved to East Germany with her family at a time when people were fleeing in the opposite direction.
       A trained physicist, Ms Merkel did not enter politics until the age of 35,after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Within the CDU she quickly came to the attention of then-chancellor Helmut Kohl.
       The remarried, childless protestant from former East Germany stood out in the CDU's conservative, Catholic image of a party dominated by men and firmly rooted in Germany's west.
       Nevertheless,"Kohl's girl" first became minister for women and youth, then inherited the environment brief. In 2000 she was elected as the first female leader of the CDU. While Ms Merkel learned her political skills under Mr Kohl, she does not share his sense of historical imperative, Mr Langguth said.
       "She is a non-ideological, pragmatic problem solver," Mr Langguth said, adding that pathos was not Ms Merkel's style.
       What many see as Chancellor Merkel's pragmatism can also be considered opportunist. Voted in on a tax-cutting agen-da in 2005, Ms Merkel quickly adapted to the limitations of a grand coalition.Her ambitious health reform programme became a messy compromise. But the more concrete decisions of her government include a value-added tax increase,and raising the retirement age to 67.
       Internationally, Ms Merkel has gained respect, first capitalising on the 2006 Football World Cup held in Germany,then showing leadership during the country's rotating presidency of the Group of Eight (G8).
       More recently, the chancellor stood her ground during thefinancial crisis,rebuffing initial calls from the US and Japan for government bailouts to boost the German economy.
       Now the apparent rescue of German carmaker Opel, and two successive quarters of economic growth, allow Ms Merkel to argue that her government has fended off the worst of the economic crisis.
       The chancellor's demands for a tightening of international financial markets and her proposed "charter of sustainable growth" should further place her in a lead role at the G20 summit in Pittsburgh, the United States, just days before the German election.
       Indeed, the economy forms the lynchpin of Ms Merkel's election pledges,arguing that the need to encourage growth in the wake of the economic crisis aligns the CDU with the FDP's liberal agenda.
       "We have the strength," proclaim the CDU's election posters, above a flattering picture of Ms Merkel with a maternal smile.
       But while the CDU is relying on the popularity of its leader to bring in the vote, Ms Merkel is also likely to carry the can if her hands-off approach to the election campaign fails to pay off.
       In 2005, against the more energetic campaigner Gerhard Schroeder, Ms Merkel allowed a healthy poll lead to slip to almost a dead heat in the final days of the campaign.

Merkel assured of second term

       Chancellor Angela Merkel is virtually assured of a second term in office when Germany goes to the polls next weekend but she faces a nail-biting wait to see if she can form her preferred coalition.
       About 62 million Germans are eligible to vote on Sunday in an election that will decide who is at the helm of Europe's most populous nation and biggest economy for the next four years.
       Barring a major election-day surprise,polls show the 55-year-old Ms Merkel,a pastor's daughter from the former communist east Germany and Forbes magazine's world's most powerful woman, is a shoo-in for re-election.
       The key question to be resolved in Sunday's vote is whether in Germany's coalition-based political systemMs Merkel's centre-right Christian Demo-crats (CDU) can win enough votes to form their preferred alliance with the businessfriendly Free Democrats.
       If not, Germany is in for a second term of the "grand coalition" between the CDU and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD)-an unwieldy alliance that some analysts say has hobbled economic reform in the country.
       The latest polls put the CDU on around 36% of the votes and the Free Democrats on about 12%, just enough to scrape a razor-thin parliamentary majority. The SPD is languishing near 26%, with their preferred coalition partner the Greens on around 11%.
       "I am certain that Ms Merkel will be the next chancellor. I do not see any alternative to her. The only interesting question is, in which coalition?" said Gerd Langguth, professor of political science at Bonn University and author of a biography of Ms Merkel.
       The election follows two broadly uninspiring campaigns waged by Ms
       Merkel and her SPD rival,Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the country's 53-year-old vicechancellor and foreign minister.
       The pair, who have governed together for the past four years, have shied away from personal attacks and struggled to set themselves apart from each other as they hold joint responsibility for the administration's record.
       This was evident in their one and only live TV debate during which the polite and passionless sparring prompted one exasperated moderator to exclaim:"You two are like an old married couple."
       Voters have also struggled to separate the policies of the two main parties as their manifesto pledges differ only slightly on the key issues of the day, including Germany's involvement in Afghanistan and the financial crisis.
       Only on nuclear energy - where the CDU wants to go back on an earlier pledge to scrap the country's 17 nuclear power plants and the SPD wants to hold firm - and on wage policy are there clearly defined differences.
       "Merkel knows that if she is not confrontational, she can rely on her popularity as chancellor. She has the highest popularity ratings of any chancellor in German history," Mr Langguth said.
       The country is groggily getting off its knees after its worst recession in 60 years and output this year is poised to shrink by as much as 6%.
       So far, a programme offering firms incentives to keep workers on parttime rather than lay them off has kept a lid on unemployment, but experts see jobless lines growing rapidly in the coming months.
       In the foreign policy sphere, politicians face an increasingly uphill battle to convince the public their country needs to stay the course in the unpopular mission in Afghanistan. A more pleasant task for the new chancellor will be welcoming a host of world leaders on Nov 9 to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall which paved the way to a reunited Germany.

Afghans wait as rigging charges delay new govt

       Dusty ballot boxes sit in warehouses across Afghanistan, with monitors worrying that a quarter of the votes locked inside could be fraudulent,most of them cast for incumbent President Hamid Karzai.
       Despite allegations that vote-rigging was massive and widespread, most of the plastic boxes remain firmly sealed as electoral bodies squabble over how to resolve the crisis,leaving Afghanistan in deadlock.
       One month after Afghans voted in their second presidential election, there is little sign that the nation embroiled in a war against Taliban insurgents and in desperate need of reconstruction will have a leader named any time soon.
       The UN-backed arbiter the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) has identified just over 2,500 polling stations out of 24,183 that opened on Aug 20 where "clear and convincing evidence of fraud" merits a recount and audit.
       But the Independent Election Commission (IEC)- accused of being stacked with Karzai cronies - says such an audit would take six weeks, and are urging an alternative to prevent a prolonged political crisis.
       "The concern we raised to the ECC decision is that it includes all 34 provinces, and it will take at least one-and-a-half months,"Daoud Ali Najafi, IEC chief electoral officer,said.
       With all the votes counted, Mr Karzai looks on track for re-election with nearly 55% of the vote, his nearest rival Abdullah Abdullah trailing with 27.8%. Turnout was a meagre 38.7%.
       The ECC is now walking a delicate tightrope, analysts say, scrambling to come up with a plan to pacify the IEC, other candidates, and international backers of the poll who insist that they will not be party to any whitewash.
       "If they don't do the recount, if they don't honour their own instructions, Abdullah will reject the result," said Haroun Mir,of Afghanistan's Centre for Research and Policy Studies, warning of looming "political confrontation".
       European Union election monitors last week said that they had identified 1.5 million suspicious ballots - 1.1 million of them cast for Mr Karzai - which merited further investigation. That amounts to a quarter of votes cast.
       If the ECC goes ahead with a recount and throws out a significant number of ballots from the 2,500 polling stations, the figures could push Mr Karzai below the threshold needed for victory, sparking a run-off with Mr Abdullah.
       The worry is that any second round would have to be held within two months, before harsh winter snows blanket parts of Afghanistan and make the logistics of another vote impossible until the spring.
       Mr Najafi said the IEC had done its job and was now awaiting guidance from the ECC on how best to carry out any recount.
       "Everything is gone from our hands," he said.
       ECC chairman Grant Kippen was not available for comment, but has said in the past that the body wanted to complete their job "as quickly as possible".
       Mr Karzai has denied any massive voterigging and says he will accept the outcome of ECC and IEC investigations.
       But the incumbent already looks to be on a collision course with his international backers, with his campaign office responding furiously to the EU reports of "massive fraud".
       What the ECC is struggling to avoid, Mr Mir said, is being seen as a foreign meddler in Afghanistan's internal affairs. Three of its five commissioners are Westerners, and already the knives are being sharpened.
       "It is not justifiable that in a national commission there are foreigners," Nasrullah Stanakzai, a Kabul University law professor,told a panel discussion."This commission does not know Afghanistan."
       So far, the ECC has been carrying out investigations based on complaints it received directly, already a painstaking process. The UN said yesterday that an "electoral expert" had arrived in Kabul to assist with the recount.
       The official "is advising the IEC and the ECC on how to conduct the partial recount in a timely fashion with integrity so that the final outcome reflects the will of the people",UN spokesman Aleem Siddique said.
       He would not name the official, but did not deny a report in London's Sunday Telegraph that he is Carlos Valenzuela, a Colombian with experience of controversial elections who was in Afghanistan during 2005 polls.
       "He will be advising the IEC on how to sample polling stations where complaints have been made so that we can speed up the investigation process," Mr Siddique said.
       Sitting on broken chairs and surrounded by dusty ballot boxes in a Kabul warehouse,ECC staff examine suspicious ballot boxes,looking for indications of fraud such as unfolded ballots or a tranche of papers all bearing similar marks for one candidate.
       "We have been doing this in Kabul for two weeks so far," said Dan Murphy, a technical adviser to the ECC."We have absolutely no idea how long it's going to take."

Socialist aims for closer Turkish ties

       Greek opposition socialist leader George Papandreou said he would try to warm relations with Turkey if elected on Oct 4, but Ankara needed to respect EU rules to get a good December progress report from Brussels.
       Mr Papandreou, a former foreign minister whose Pasok party is leading opinion polls by a wide margin ahead of the vote, said hurdles had appeared in Greek-Turkish relations in recent years that could affect Turkey's chances for accession to the EU.
       "We want to revive this momentum which has been lost but at the same time evaluate the difficulties and the problems that have cropped up in bilateral relations," he said.
       Long at odds over territorial issues and the divided island of Cyprus, Greece and Turkey came close to war over a deserted islet in the Aegean Sea in 1996.
       Mr Papandreou was instrumental in rebuilding relations with Turkey as foreign minister in the late 1990s.
       Relations had since improved but a visit by Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis to Turkey in 2008 failed to produce the desired progress.
       Greece has repeatedly protested this year over Turkish fighter jets sorties over populated Greek islands.
       Mr Papandreou said Greece wanted to see genuine steps from Turkey on issues such as respecting borders, sovereignty and islands, as well as EU rules.
       "Otherwise, it's up in the air," he said, referring to Turkey's EU bid evaluation in December."They know I'm a friend,they know I worked very hard [on relations] but they also know that I'm here to protect our rights."
       He said improving relations between the two tense Nato allies would allow a reduction in military spending and greater cooperation in the region.
       Greece, which is running a huge debt and high budget deficits, spends about 3% of its GDP on defence.

Karzai's poll office blasts EU monitors

       Afghan President Hamid Karzai's campaign team yesterday criticised EU vote monitors as "irresponsible"for announcing that up to 1.5 million ballots in last month's elections could be fraudulent.
       The European Union Election Observation Mission to Afghanistan said earlier yesterday their analysis of the August polls found almost a quarter of the votes counted so far were "suspicious", sparking the fierce reaction.
       The statement from Mr Karzai's campaign office said the announcement "is partial, irresponsible and in contradiction with Afghanistan's constitution".
       "The role of national and international monitors is to monitor the election process and refer their findings to the Independent Election Commission and the Electoral Complaints Commission," it said.
       "We believe the only way we can have a legitimate result out of the current process is to allow the legal institutions to complete the process and refrain from interfering in their affairs," it added.
       Dimitra Ioannou, the head of the EU mission, said that of 1.5 million votes they identified as suspicious,1.1 million were cast for Mr Karzai, while 300,000 were for his main rival Abdullah Abdullah.
       The remainder were cast for other candidates.
       "Massive fraud was taking place at polling station level and when all these ballot boxes arrived at the tally centres,instead of being quarantined and investigated, they were accepted as good results," she said.
       Meanwhile, Nato's No 2 general in Europe says there have been achievements in Afghanistan despite aresurgence of violence.
       British General John McColl told the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe yesterday that the international community has done much since 2002 to help improve Afghans'lives.

Czech leftists torpedo early election plan

       Czech leftist parties torpedoed chances of a November early election yesterday, deepening uncertainty over eroding state finances that the caretaker cabinet warned could eventually cause a meltdown.
       The leftist Social Democrats and the far-left Communists rejected an earlier agreed plan to dissolve the lower house of parliament yesterday and allow for an election, effectively killing the motion before it got to a vote.
       The expected delay deepens weeks of political turmoil and launches Jan Fischer's non-partisan cabinet originally set up to prepare for an early vote into a government that must try to coerce parties into tax hikes and savings.
       It also deepens acrimony between the two main parties, the centre-right Civic Democrats, whose government fell during its European Union presidency in March, and the Social Democrats.
       Despite those factors, however,analysts said putting the vote off until next summer could potentially give quarrelling parties room to reach an agreement to mend the crisis-hit budget deficit, which has tripled this year and is still rising.

Ruling Socialist party has slight edge ahead of vote

       Portugal's ruling Socialists were slightly ahead in two opinion polls published on Saturday two weeks before a parliamentary election, but fell short of the absolute majority they have enjoyed the past four years.
       In both polls, the margin of error is larger than the difference between the Socialists and the centre-right PSD party.It means the PSD could still garner more votes in the Sept 27 ballot, also short of a working majority.
       In a TV debate with Socialist Prime Minister Jose Socrates, PSD leader Manuela Ferreira Leite said that "a political understanding with Socrates is out of the question". She said she would not mind forming a minority government if her party won the ballot.
       "I am not totally convinced that an absolute majority is needed. There have been minority governments in the past that governed through the end of their term," she said.
       Some analysts do not rule out a central bloc with the participation of the two main parties, and say President Anibal Cavaco Silva may try to broker such a coalition if no party emerges with a clear mandate. Mr Socrates avoided commenting on any possible cooperation with the PSD, saying only:"I am not a candidate against anyone."
       Analysts said disagreements over economic and social issues and mutual accusations made in the debate were nothing new and were unlikely to tip the balance either way.
       "I don't think Socrates convinced any left-wing undecideds to vote for him,which is what he had to do to extend the lead. Otherwise, the debate will hardly have any impact on the voting pattern,"analyst Antonio Costa Pinto said
       The opinion polls showed conflicting trends when compared to the previous surveys in July, the former showing the Socialists gaining 1.4 percentage points to 33.6%. Another poll showed the voting intentions for the Socialists dropping slightly to 35.3%. Portuguese opinion polls failed to predict the 2005 majority won by the Socialists. The PSD won the European elections in June, with 31.7%against 26.6% for the Socialists, confounding most expectations.

Cory Aquino's son to run for president

       The son of former Philippine president Cory Aquino, heroine of the 1986 People Power movement, said yesterday he would run for president, putting him among the front-runners for next May's election.
       While economists have applauded Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino's likely platform of clean government, they have also pointed to his lack of executive experience and doubts about his ability to bring economic reform.
       "I accept the plea of the nation. I also accept the instructions of my parents,"Mr Aquino said at the same hall where his mother, who died last month, was proclaimed president over 23 years ago."I accept the responsibility to continue the fight for the country."
       At least six other candidates, mostly senators, have said they will contest next year's vote.
       "Noynoy doesn't seem to have solid credentials apart from being the good guy and son of a couple of national heroes," an analyst said.
       Some analysts have said an Aquino presidency may be slow to amend the 1987 constitution adopted during the rule of his mother. Reform of some of that document's economic provisions,which include restrictions on foreign investment, is seen as key to promoting growth.

Karzai passes 50% mark in Afghan vote

       President Hamid Karzai surpassed for the first time the 50%threshold needed to avoid a run-off in Afghanistan's presidential election,according to preliminary results released yesterday.
       But with allegations of fraud on the rise, a UN-backed commission ordered a re-count of tainted ballots.
       The chief electoral officer of the Afghan-run Independent Election Commission, Daoud Ali Najafi, said that recounting votes could take "two or three months", meaning the already over-extended election is far from over.
       With results in from almost 92% of the country's polling sites, Mr Karzai has 54.1% of the votes, pushing him over the threshold that would allow him to declare victory outright and avoid a run-off with his main challenger,Abdullah Abdullah.
       As more results have come in from the south, where Mr Karzai's support is strong, former foreign minister Abdullah's standing has slipped dramatically. Mr Abdullah now has 28.3%of the vote.
       But doubts are growing about the credibility of the election.
       The Afghan-run election commission has already quarantined ballots from more than 600 polling stations ruled to have been spoiled or tainted by fraud, out of more than 26,000 polling stations. The results announced yesterday discount those ballots. The UNbacked Electoral Complaints Commission will investigate and determine their validity.
       Separately, the Electoral Complaints Commission, a separate UN-backed body charged with investigating the vote, ordered a re-count yesterday at polling stations where it had found "convincing evidence" of fraud, meaning Mr Karzai could still have votes taken away from him. More than 720 major fraud charges have been lodged with the complaints commission.
       Nato admits airstrike killed civilians
       Nato-led forces acknowledged for the first time yesterday that Afghan civilians were killed in a Germanordered airstrike last week on two stolen fuel tankers, and the top commander appointed a team to investigate.
       German Chancellor Angela Merkel said yesterday that her government won't accept "premature judgments"about the incident. Germany's military has been criticised for calling in last week's strike by a US jet on two hijacked tanker trucks in Kunduz province and for initially insisting that it appeared only militants were killed. Local officials have said civilians were among more than 50 killed, but there have been conflicting claims over how many.
       A statement yesterday from the Natoled force said that commanders originally believed the tankers were surrounded only by Taliban insurgents,but that a subsequent review showed "civilians also were killed and injured in the strike".
       Previously, officials had said only that civilians may have been wounded.
       The top US and Nato commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, appointed a Canadian major-general to lead the investigation.A US air force officer and a German officer are also on the investigating team. The incident involved both German and US forces.

Charity slams "hospital raid" by US troops

       A Swedish charity levelled accusations yesterday at US troops that it said stormed through a hospital in central Afghanistan, breaking down doors and tying up staff in a search for militants. The US military said it was investigating.
       The allegation that soldiers violated the neutrality of a medical facility follows the reported deaths of Afghan civilians in a US airstrike in the country's north last week. An Afghan human rights group said yesterday the strike on two hijacked fuel tankers last week may have killed as many as 70 civilians in Kunduz province.
       The Swedish Committee for Afghanistan said yesterday that the US Army's 10th Mountain Division entered the charity's hospital without permission to look for insurgents in Wardak province, southwest of Kabul.
       "This is simply not acceptable," said Anders Fange, the charity's country director, adding that the troops came to the hospital looking for Taliban insurgents late at night last Wednesday.
       Mr Fange said they kicked in doors,tied up four hospital employees and two family members of patients, and forced patients out of beds during the search. When they left two hours later,the unit ordered hospital staff to inform coalition forces if any wounded militants were admitted, and the military would decide if they could be treated,Mr Fange said.
       The staff refused, he said."That would put our staff at risk and make the hospital a target."
       The charity said on its website that the troops' actions were not only a violation of humanitarian principles but also went against an agreement between Nato forces and charities working in the area.
       "We demand guarantees ... that such violations will not be repeated and that this is made clear to commanders in the field," the statement said.
       A US military spokeswoman confirmed that the hospital was searched last week. She said the military was looking into the incident.
       "We take allegations like this seriously," she said.
       Meanwhile, the New York Times reported on Sunday that Afghans loyal to President Hamid Karzai set up hundreds of fictitious polling sites for last month's elections, where no one voted but hundreds of thousands of ballots were still recorded toward the president's re-election,.
       Citing unnamed senior Western and Afghan officials, the newspaper said there were as many as 800 such fake sites that existed only on paper.
       Local workers reported that hundreds, and in some cases thousands,of votes for Mr Karzai came from each of those places, the report said.
       "We think that about 15% of the polling sites never opened on election day," a senior Western diplomat told the Times ."But they still managed to report thousands of ballots for Karzai."
       Karzai supporters also took over around 800 legitimate polling centres and used them to fraudulently report tens of thousands of additional ballots for the president, the report said. The result is that in some provinces, the number of ballots cast for Mr Karzai may exceed the people who actually voted by a factor of 10.
       In Berlin on Sunday, Britain, France and Germany unveiled proposals for an international conference on Afghanistan later this year in order to press Afghans to take more responsibility for their own country.
       "What is important, and this is our joint view, is to apply pressure in order to find a way to get the Afghans to appreciate that they have to take responsibility step by step," Chancellor Angela Merkel told a joint press briefing with Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
       The location of the conference has yet to be decided.

Vote fraud mars TAO elections

       Tambon administration organisation elections held yesterday have been marred by widespread vote-buying allegations.
       Poll cheats are suspected of spending more money than ever in the elections which were held in 2,959 tambons across 74 provinces.
       The chair of the People's Network for Election Thailand (Pnet) in Ayutthaya,Chollada Boonkasem, said vote-buying was rampant in several tambons in the central province. Voters were offered as much as 1,000 baht to vote for candidates for the position of TAO chair, and 200 baht to 300 baht for TAO rank-and-file members.
       Most cash handouts were reported in Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phachi,Uthai, Sena and Bang Sai districts, Ms Chollada said, as she was handing poll fraud evidence to the provincial election committee. There are 93 tambons in Ayutthaya.
       Mana Yaemchabok, an election committee member in Polkrang in the northeastern province of Nakhon Ratchasima,said poll supervisors and police were out in force looking for vote buyers on Saturday night. No violations were reported.
       Thawee Chunkor, director of the Buri Ram election commission, said the atmosphere in many tambons in the northeastern province was lively. He expected the voter turnout to top 70%.
       Mr Thawee said his panel had not received any complaints about poll violations.
       But an observer said a group of teenagers was seen handing out pre-paid mobile phone cards to voters in several areas. Cash handouts of about 300 baht to 500 baht were also made, he said.
       In the southern province of Ranong,voters flocked to the polls amid heavy rain.
       Kamol Wipadapisut, chairman of the Ranong provincial election office, said the office received a complaint that a village head in tambon Ngao had failed to maintain his neutrality by suggesting that voters support certain candidates.The committee was investigating.
       In the lower southern province of Trang, two election canvassers were arrested with cash they allegedly were using to buy votes.
       Sompong Buaban, chair of the provincial election commission, said three complaints had been lodged with the commission, including the one about two arrested canvassers in Natam Nua TAO in Muang district.
       The atmosphere in the three restive southern border provinces of Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani was quiet.
       In Yala, only a small number of voters showed up in tightly guarded Pron tambon in Muang district to cast their ballot.
       Election Commission secretarygeneral Suthiphon Thaveechaiyagarn said the turnout around the country was expected to be about 70%.
       Official results were expected to be declared by the EC this week, he said.

Vote-buyers top up credit

       Reports of vote-buying and intimidation mounted in some provinces yesterday as poll organisers mobilised resources to ensure today's country-wide local elections are clean and fair.
       People across the country go to polling stations today to elect members of 2,959 tambon administrative organisations.
       The polls, in which more than 117,000 people are vying for TAO seats and more than 6,400 people are running for TAO mayoral posts, are expected to be fierce in several areas.
       Prasit Kotchakotra, chairman of Kalasin provincial election committee, said vote-buying allegations surfaced in many areas as the polls approached.
       More than 200 million baht was believed to have changed hands to elect members of 98 TAOs, he said.
       Gen Weerawut Songsai, chairman of Nakhon Ratchasima provincial election committee, said canvassers had come up with a new form of vote-buying.
       Instead of handing out cash, the campaigners transferred call credits to voters'mobile phones, which made it more difficult to track vote-buying, he noted.
       In Kamphaeng Phet's Kosamphinakhon district, Sithon Piarodwong, clerk of tambon Lan Dok Mai administrative organisation, said police and election staff would be deployed at polling stations.
       He said the contest was fierce because three candidates are running for mayor.
       Prapun Naigowit, member of the Election Commission, said the poll agency would use all the resources at its disposal to ensure fair elections.
       In the northeastern province, elections are being held at 100 TAOs in 26 districts.
       EC member Sodsri Sattayatham said the provincial committee would look into a complaint against local election staff in Nakhon Ratchasima for failing to be politically neutral.
       Election staff in tambon Polkrang in Muang district were accused of favouritism.
       Mrs Sodsri, who inspected poll preparations in Nakhon Ratchasima yesterday, said she had told election panels to strictly enforce the law.

Democrats tasked with delivering change

       The Democrats' solution is to move Japan away from a corporate-centric economic model to one that focuses on helping people.
       Sunday's election results in Japan may seem like a clear mandate for change. But looks can be misleading.Japan's voters resoundingly kicked out the party that has governed their country for virtually all the past half century. The newly empowered Democratic Party of Japan's (DPJ) time to celebrate, though, could be shortlived.
       They've made their promises, and now they have to deliver - a tall order for a party with a shaky mandate. The numbers may show a landslide, but most voters were seen as venting dissatisfaction with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) more so than endorsing the policies of the opposition DPJ.
       The beneficiary of the public's frustration is the Democratic Party, which has laid out a populist platform with promises to expand the country's social safety net. The media projected late Sunday night that the party would capture 300 of 480 lower house seats - more than enough to control the national agenda.
       Many Democratic candidates, who have never experienced such sweet vic-tory, seemed stunned by the results,overcome with emotion by the historic nature of their win.
       Savouring triumph now is probably a good idea. The political high is unlikely to last very long. As President Barack Obama is discovering now with healthcare reform, touting change is a lot easier than making it happen.
       The Democrats' first task will be to convince a sceptical public that they can actually lead.
       "I feel very insecure with the Democratic Party of Japan," said 65-year-old voter Shuji Ueki a few hours after the polls closed."They don't have a record."
       Indeed, the Democrats are untested,made up of an inexperienced group of left-wing activists and LDP defectors.The party is just 11 years old, and only a handful have served in top government positions.
       Their rise to power - and ability to enact change -comes at a critical crossroads for the world's second-largest economy.
       Japan managed to climb out of a year-long recession in the second quarter,but its economy remains weak. Unemployment and anxiety over falling wages threatens to undermine any recovery.The jobless rate has risen to a record 5.7%. After a rapid succession of three administrations in three years, Japan is facing its worst crisis of confidence in decades.
       In the long-term it faces a bleak outlook if it isn't able to figure out how to cope with a rapidly ageing and shrinking population. Government estimates predict the figure will drop to 115 million in 2030 and fall below 100 million by the middle of the century.
       The Democrats' solution is to move Japan away from a corporate-centric economic model to one that focuses on helping people. They have proposed an expensive array of initiatives: cash handouts to families and farmers, toll-free highways, a higher minimum wage and tax cuts. The estimated bill comes to 16.8 trillion yen (US$179 billion) when fully implemented starting in the 2013 fiscal year.
       The party has said it plans to cut "waste" and rely on untapped financial reserves to fund their programmes. But with Japan's public debt heading toward 200% of gross domestic product, the Democrats' plan has been criticised as a financial fantasy that would worsen Japan's precarious fiscal health.
       The Democrats are also under scrutiny for their positions on national security and foreign policy.
       Party leader Yukio Hatoyama, set to become Japan's next prime minister,has been vocal about distancing the country from Washington and forging closer ties with its Asian neighbours.
       As opposition leader, he routinely criticised the pro-US Liberal Democrats for joining in refuelling operations in the Indian Ocean in support of American troops in Afghanistan - a mission he says he will halt - and the role of the 50,000 American troops deployed throughout Japan under a post-World War Two mutual security pact.
       But the Democrats' most formidable roadblock will probably be Japan's massive bureaucracy, which for decades has had a cosy relationship with the LDP and effectively runs the government.The new ruling party has vowed to do what no one has managed to so far:limit the bureaucracy's power and hand more control over to elected officials.
       Ichiro Ozawa, co-founder of the party,expressed quiet confidence:"We have no fear, and we will steadily achieve our campaign promises one by one."

Can the Democratic Party turn Japan around?

       Japan might be standing at a turning point in its history as parliamentary elections appear likely to unseat the party that has ruled Japan nearly continuously for more than 50 years.
       With judgement day this Sunday, the main opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), is leading in the latest opinion polls with 36% voter support. The figure is 20 points higher than that for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
       Voters have increasingly becoming dissatisfied with the coalition government of the LDP and the New Komeito party after it went through three prime ministers in three years; current Prime Minister Taro Aso failed to demonstrate strong leadership, his administration neglected to deal with long-term economic problems, a series of scandals rocked the LDP and the party failed to address domestic concerns, such as Japan's strained pension system and its ageing, shrinking population.
       Many analysts said the DPJ, which won control of the upper House of Councillors in 2007 elections, has a good chance of repeating that victory on Sunday for the House of Representatives by securing a majority of 241 seats or more in the more powerful, lower chamber of the Diet. Such a result would more than double the 112 seats the party now holds.
       DPJ president Yukio Hatoyama, who is likely to become prime minister if his party wins, has promised voters he would bring change to Japan by cutting wasteful spending but not imposing a burden on citizens to pay back the national debt,which, at about 800 trillion yen (US$8.5 trillion), exceeds 160% of the nation's gross domestic product.
       Mr Hatoyama also has vowed to revitalise the world's second-largest economy by increasing household incomes and encouraging spending.
       Voters are hopeful, but the promises sound too good to be true to political observers, and the DPJ faces numerous obstacles to bringing about the change it has promised for Japan.
       Some analysts have criticised the party's economic stimulus plan to draw Japan out of its worst post-war economic slump as being unrealistic.
       While Mr Hatoyama said he plans to review the current government's recordhigh stimulus package, his party's manifesto promises to raise monthly child allowances for children, scrap expressway tolls and gasoline taxes as part of its plan to stimulate consumer spending.
       It said it could secure funds for its proposed programmes by cutting public works projects and increasing domestic demand while at the same time holding off on a sales tax hike for the next four years.
       The LDP has questioned how the DPJ's proposals would be paid for, called them a "pipe dream" and said they would require "magic" to be realised.
       Analysts and the LDP also warned of the DPJ's lack of experience in running the government.
       Only a handful of party members have experience serving in ministerial posts or in the prime minister's office. The party is largely made up of LDP defectors,Social Democrats and former trade unionists.
       "The DPJ has many young, brilliant candidates," political analyst Takao Toshikawa said,"but the party does not have enough competent personnel."
       The DPJ's most experienced, foremost strategist is former party leader and seasoned politician Ichiro Ozawa, who stepped down in May amid a political funding scandal.
       His successor, Mr Hatoyama, has also found himself entangled in the ongoing investigation of the donation scandal,in which his office used deceased people's names to report about 22 million yen ($239,000) in contributions made from 2005 to 2009.
       Even though Mr Ozawa, who left the LDP in frustration over the party's inability to reform, gave up the DPJ's top post, his influence within the party remains strong, analysts said - enough that he might act as "a shadow shogun"to Mr Hatoyama if the party takes power.
       "Hatoyama doesn't have enough experience and stratagem compared with Ozawa," Mr Toshikawa said.
       Mr Ozawa's reputation of being a shrewd manipulator and his success and experience in the kind of backroom politics the voters now abhor may prove as big a burden to the DPJ as his experience is a boon.
       A third issue for the DPJ should it win is how it would deal with Japan's powerful bureaucrats, who have a close relationship with the LDP and helped keep that party in power for so long.
       Mr Hatoyama has argued that politics in Japan is led by its bureaucrats rather than its politicians. The 62-year-old centrist has vowed to wrest control of the budget and policy from Japan's ministries - a job that political observers said would be a monumental one and would also determine the success of a DPJ-led government.
       However, the only non-LDP governments to run Japan since 1955 lasted less than a year in the 1990s, in part because of bureaucratic resistance to their policies. Even the popular, reformminded LDP premier Junichiro Koizumi,who left office in 2006, found it difficult to push change past the entrenched civil service.
       While disgruntlement among voters could hand the DPJ an election victory and bring about a historic change in Japan's government, it would far from ensure DPJ-touted reforms.

Japan media predicts ruling LDP faces rout

       Japan's opposition Democratic Party looks set for a landslide victory in an election on Sunday, polls show, ending over five decades of almost unbroken rule by the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
       Yukio Hatoyama's Democrats have promised to focus spending on households, cut waste and wrest control of policy from the hands of bureaucrats,a shift from the business-friendly LDP.
       Japanese media predict the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will win,ending a deadlock in parliament where the party and its allies control the less powerful upper chamber.
       Financial markets would generally welcome the prospect of smoother policy-making as Japan tries to revive its economy and deal with the challenges of an ageing, shrinking population. But some analysts worry the DPJ's ambitious spending plans could inflate already sky-high public debt and push up long-term interest rates.
       If the DPJ win a two-thirds majority in the 480-seat lower house, they could enact laws rejected by the upper chamber. That is unlikely to be necessary soon, but would be key if the LDP and its partner win an upper house poll in the middle of next year. Even if the Democrats win a majority, they would need help from the small leftist Social Democratic Party and conservative People's New Party to pass bills smoothly. But a bigger Democratic majority means they would have to pay less attention to their allies, making policy formation easier.
       Too big a win, however, could make managing the party harder.
       A victorious Democratic government would quickly focus on keeping voter support ahead of the 2010 upper house poll, probably by keeping pledges to boost household incomes.
       But the government could be distracted if opponents zero in on a scandal in which Mr Hatoyama's aide reported donations from people who turned out to be dead.
       If the Democratic Party falls short of a majority, it could still take power by forming a coalition with two smaller allies. That would mean it would need to listen more to the Social Democrats and the People's New Party, and the coalition could could have trouble agreeing on policies, especially in the areas of security and diplomacy, where differences are most acute. If the Democrats stumble in the final days and the margin of victory on either side is very small, the LDP and Democrats would each try to woo defectors or small parties to form a coalition.
       The LDP has sought to lure back conservative voters with charges that the Democrats are spendthrift, weak on security and unpatriotic.
       Forecasts for a landslide opposition victory could also prompt some riskaverse voters to opt for the LDP,although analysts said there were few signs that this was occurring.
       A fuzzy outcome would delay the formation of a new government,although parliament must meet to elect a prime minister within 30 days.
       Policy implementation would be difficult, since lawmakers might not necessarily vie for power along clear policy lines. Opinion polls suggest this is unlikely and if the LDP and its junior partner stay in power, they will almost certainly lose the two-thirds majority that has enabled them to enact laws rejected by the opposition-controlled upper chamber.
       The policy stalemate would worsen,at least until the 2010 upper house poll. If the deadlock dragged on, the idea of a "grand coalition" among ruling and opposition blocs could be revived as a way to break the deadlock.
       One of Prime Minister Taro Aso's predecessors, Yasuo Fukuda, tried to form such a coalition with then-DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa, but Mr Ozawa's party reject the notion.