Maybe this is why Chancellor Angela Merkel is so closed. In East Germany she learned for a long time never to show her own opinion.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel,of the Christian Democrats (CDU),at times seems impervious to the fact that an election campaign is going on around her.
Brushing aside criticism from political opponents and even demands within her own party to infuse energy into a lacklustre election campaign, Ms Merkel has retained her presidential calm at the helm of Europe's most populous country and largest economy.
"Volume and insulting other people should not be the measure by which the seriousness of the election campaign should be judged," Ms Merkel said, swatting away the criticisms.
The chancellor's popularity - which far outstrips that of her party - has remained undented by state elections this month in which the CDU suffered serious setbacks.
In a poll conducted by ARD television,57% said they would elect Ms Merkel directly if they could, while only 28%said they would pick SPD candidate Frank-Walter Steinmeier.
The CDU stands to gain 35-37% of the Sept 27 vote, compared to around 23% for the Social Democrats (SPD) according to recent polls.
Ms Merkel's CDU hopes the election will return a sufficient majority to ditch the so-called grand coalition with the SPD, in favour of a new pro-market partnership with the Free Democrats (FDP).
Unostentatious in her sensible trouser suits and no-nonsense fringe, the chancellor's popularity stems from her quiet determination to get on with the job.
"This humble appearance, and the fact that she doesn't stage things, that is her actual staging," said Gerd Langguth,a political scientist and biographer of Angela Merkel. At the same time, Mr Langguth says Ms Merkel's upbringing under a totalitarian East German regime may have taught her to mask her true thoughts."Maybe this is why Merkel is so closed," Mr Langguth said."In East Germany she learned for a long time never to show her own opinion."
Angela Merkel has tried to reveal her personal side, proclaiming a love of the Beatles and Rolling Stones, and telling a German women's magazine that she writes the shopping list for her mediashy husband, quantum chemist Joachim Sauer. The daughter of a protestant priest,Angela was born near Hamburg in 1954,and moved to East Germany with her family at a time when people were fleeing in the opposite direction.
A trained physicist, Ms Merkel did not enter politics until the age of 35,after the fall of the Berlin Wall. Within the CDU she quickly came to the attention of then-chancellor Helmut Kohl.
The remarried, childless protestant from former East Germany stood out in the CDU's conservative, Catholic image of a party dominated by men and firmly rooted in Germany's west.
Nevertheless,"Kohl's girl" first became minister for women and youth, then inherited the environment brief. In 2000 she was elected as the first female leader of the CDU. While Ms Merkel learned her political skills under Mr Kohl, she does not share his sense of historical imperative, Mr Langguth said.
"She is a non-ideological, pragmatic problem solver," Mr Langguth said, adding that pathos was not Ms Merkel's style.
What many see as Chancellor Merkel's pragmatism can also be considered opportunist. Voted in on a tax-cutting agen-da in 2005, Ms Merkel quickly adapted to the limitations of a grand coalition.Her ambitious health reform programme became a messy compromise. But the more concrete decisions of her government include a value-added tax increase,and raising the retirement age to 67.
Internationally, Ms Merkel has gained respect, first capitalising on the 2006 Football World Cup held in Germany,then showing leadership during the country's rotating presidency of the Group of Eight (G8).
More recently, the chancellor stood her ground during thefinancial crisis,rebuffing initial calls from the US and Japan for government bailouts to boost the German economy.
Now the apparent rescue of German carmaker Opel, and two successive quarters of economic growth, allow Ms Merkel to argue that her government has fended off the worst of the economic crisis.
The chancellor's demands for a tightening of international financial markets and her proposed "charter of sustainable growth" should further place her in a lead role at the G20 summit in Pittsburgh, the United States, just days before the German election.
Indeed, the economy forms the lynchpin of Ms Merkel's election pledges,arguing that the need to encourage growth in the wake of the economic crisis aligns the CDU with the FDP's liberal agenda.
"We have the strength," proclaim the CDU's election posters, above a flattering picture of Ms Merkel with a maternal smile.
But while the CDU is relying on the popularity of its leader to bring in the vote, Ms Merkel is also likely to carry the can if her hands-off approach to the election campaign fails to pay off.
In 2005, against the more energetic campaigner Gerhard Schroeder, Ms Merkel allowed a healthy poll lead to slip to almost a dead heat in the final days of the campaign.
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Merkel assured of second term
Chancellor Angela Merkel is virtually assured of a second term in office when Germany goes to the polls next weekend but she faces a nail-biting wait to see if she can form her preferred coalition.
About 62 million Germans are eligible to vote on Sunday in an election that will decide who is at the helm of Europe's most populous nation and biggest economy for the next four years.
Barring a major election-day surprise,polls show the 55-year-old Ms Merkel,a pastor's daughter from the former communist east Germany and Forbes magazine's world's most powerful woman, is a shoo-in for re-election.
The key question to be resolved in Sunday's vote is whether in Germany's coalition-based political systemMs Merkel's centre-right Christian Demo-crats (CDU) can win enough votes to form their preferred alliance with the businessfriendly Free Democrats.
If not, Germany is in for a second term of the "grand coalition" between the CDU and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD)-an unwieldy alliance that some analysts say has hobbled economic reform in the country.
The latest polls put the CDU on around 36% of the votes and the Free Democrats on about 12%, just enough to scrape a razor-thin parliamentary majority. The SPD is languishing near 26%, with their preferred coalition partner the Greens on around 11%.
"I am certain that Ms Merkel will be the next chancellor. I do not see any alternative to her. The only interesting question is, in which coalition?" said Gerd Langguth, professor of political science at Bonn University and author of a biography of Ms Merkel.
The election follows two broadly uninspiring campaigns waged by Ms
Merkel and her SPD rival,Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the country's 53-year-old vicechancellor and foreign minister.
The pair, who have governed together for the past four years, have shied away from personal attacks and struggled to set themselves apart from each other as they hold joint responsibility for the administration's record.
This was evident in their one and only live TV debate during which the polite and passionless sparring prompted one exasperated moderator to exclaim:"You two are like an old married couple."
Voters have also struggled to separate the policies of the two main parties as their manifesto pledges differ only slightly on the key issues of the day, including Germany's involvement in Afghanistan and the financial crisis.
Only on nuclear energy - where the CDU wants to go back on an earlier pledge to scrap the country's 17 nuclear power plants and the SPD wants to hold firm - and on wage policy are there clearly defined differences.
"Merkel knows that if she is not confrontational, she can rely on her popularity as chancellor. She has the highest popularity ratings of any chancellor in German history," Mr Langguth said.
The country is groggily getting off its knees after its worst recession in 60 years and output this year is poised to shrink by as much as 6%.
So far, a programme offering firms incentives to keep workers on parttime rather than lay them off has kept a lid on unemployment, but experts see jobless lines growing rapidly in the coming months.
In the foreign policy sphere, politicians face an increasingly uphill battle to convince the public their country needs to stay the course in the unpopular mission in Afghanistan. A more pleasant task for the new chancellor will be welcoming a host of world leaders on Nov 9 to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall which paved the way to a reunited Germany.
About 62 million Germans are eligible to vote on Sunday in an election that will decide who is at the helm of Europe's most populous nation and biggest economy for the next four years.
Barring a major election-day surprise,polls show the 55-year-old Ms Merkel,a pastor's daughter from the former communist east Germany and Forbes magazine's world's most powerful woman, is a shoo-in for re-election.
The key question to be resolved in Sunday's vote is whether in Germany's coalition-based political systemMs Merkel's centre-right Christian Demo-crats (CDU) can win enough votes to form their preferred alliance with the businessfriendly Free Democrats.
If not, Germany is in for a second term of the "grand coalition" between the CDU and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD)-an unwieldy alliance that some analysts say has hobbled economic reform in the country.
The latest polls put the CDU on around 36% of the votes and the Free Democrats on about 12%, just enough to scrape a razor-thin parliamentary majority. The SPD is languishing near 26%, with their preferred coalition partner the Greens on around 11%.
"I am certain that Ms Merkel will be the next chancellor. I do not see any alternative to her. The only interesting question is, in which coalition?" said Gerd Langguth, professor of political science at Bonn University and author of a biography of Ms Merkel.
The election follows two broadly uninspiring campaigns waged by Ms
Merkel and her SPD rival,Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the country's 53-year-old vicechancellor and foreign minister.
The pair, who have governed together for the past four years, have shied away from personal attacks and struggled to set themselves apart from each other as they hold joint responsibility for the administration's record.
This was evident in their one and only live TV debate during which the polite and passionless sparring prompted one exasperated moderator to exclaim:"You two are like an old married couple."
Voters have also struggled to separate the policies of the two main parties as their manifesto pledges differ only slightly on the key issues of the day, including Germany's involvement in Afghanistan and the financial crisis.
Only on nuclear energy - where the CDU wants to go back on an earlier pledge to scrap the country's 17 nuclear power plants and the SPD wants to hold firm - and on wage policy are there clearly defined differences.
"Merkel knows that if she is not confrontational, she can rely on her popularity as chancellor. She has the highest popularity ratings of any chancellor in German history," Mr Langguth said.
The country is groggily getting off its knees after its worst recession in 60 years and output this year is poised to shrink by as much as 6%.
So far, a programme offering firms incentives to keep workers on parttime rather than lay them off has kept a lid on unemployment, but experts see jobless lines growing rapidly in the coming months.
In the foreign policy sphere, politicians face an increasingly uphill battle to convince the public their country needs to stay the course in the unpopular mission in Afghanistan. A more pleasant task for the new chancellor will be welcoming a host of world leaders on Nov 9 to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall which paved the way to a reunited Germany.
Afghans wait as rigging charges delay new govt
Dusty ballot boxes sit in warehouses across Afghanistan, with monitors worrying that a quarter of the votes locked inside could be fraudulent,most of them cast for incumbent President Hamid Karzai.
Despite allegations that vote-rigging was massive and widespread, most of the plastic boxes remain firmly sealed as electoral bodies squabble over how to resolve the crisis,leaving Afghanistan in deadlock.
One month after Afghans voted in their second presidential election, there is little sign that the nation embroiled in a war against Taliban insurgents and in desperate need of reconstruction will have a leader named any time soon.
The UN-backed arbiter the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) has identified just over 2,500 polling stations out of 24,183 that opened on Aug 20 where "clear and convincing evidence of fraud" merits a recount and audit.
But the Independent Election Commission (IEC)- accused of being stacked with Karzai cronies - says such an audit would take six weeks, and are urging an alternative to prevent a prolonged political crisis.
"The concern we raised to the ECC decision is that it includes all 34 provinces, and it will take at least one-and-a-half months,"Daoud Ali Najafi, IEC chief electoral officer,said.
With all the votes counted, Mr Karzai looks on track for re-election with nearly 55% of the vote, his nearest rival Abdullah Abdullah trailing with 27.8%. Turnout was a meagre 38.7%.
The ECC is now walking a delicate tightrope, analysts say, scrambling to come up with a plan to pacify the IEC, other candidates, and international backers of the poll who insist that they will not be party to any whitewash.
"If they don't do the recount, if they don't honour their own instructions, Abdullah will reject the result," said Haroun Mir,of Afghanistan's Centre for Research and Policy Studies, warning of looming "political confrontation".
European Union election monitors last week said that they had identified 1.5 million suspicious ballots - 1.1 million of them cast for Mr Karzai - which merited further investigation. That amounts to a quarter of votes cast.
If the ECC goes ahead with a recount and throws out a significant number of ballots from the 2,500 polling stations, the figures could push Mr Karzai below the threshold needed for victory, sparking a run-off with Mr Abdullah.
The worry is that any second round would have to be held within two months, before harsh winter snows blanket parts of Afghanistan and make the logistics of another vote impossible until the spring.
Mr Najafi said the IEC had done its job and was now awaiting guidance from the ECC on how best to carry out any recount.
"Everything is gone from our hands," he said.
ECC chairman Grant Kippen was not available for comment, but has said in the past that the body wanted to complete their job "as quickly as possible".
Mr Karzai has denied any massive voterigging and says he will accept the outcome of ECC and IEC investigations.
But the incumbent already looks to be on a collision course with his international backers, with his campaign office responding furiously to the EU reports of "massive fraud".
What the ECC is struggling to avoid, Mr Mir said, is being seen as a foreign meddler in Afghanistan's internal affairs. Three of its five commissioners are Westerners, and already the knives are being sharpened.
"It is not justifiable that in a national commission there are foreigners," Nasrullah Stanakzai, a Kabul University law professor,told a panel discussion."This commission does not know Afghanistan."
So far, the ECC has been carrying out investigations based on complaints it received directly, already a painstaking process. The UN said yesterday that an "electoral expert" had arrived in Kabul to assist with the recount.
The official "is advising the IEC and the ECC on how to conduct the partial recount in a timely fashion with integrity so that the final outcome reflects the will of the people",UN spokesman Aleem Siddique said.
He would not name the official, but did not deny a report in London's Sunday Telegraph that he is Carlos Valenzuela, a Colombian with experience of controversial elections who was in Afghanistan during 2005 polls.
"He will be advising the IEC on how to sample polling stations where complaints have been made so that we can speed up the investigation process," Mr Siddique said.
Sitting on broken chairs and surrounded by dusty ballot boxes in a Kabul warehouse,ECC staff examine suspicious ballot boxes,looking for indications of fraud such as unfolded ballots or a tranche of papers all bearing similar marks for one candidate.
"We have been doing this in Kabul for two weeks so far," said Dan Murphy, a technical adviser to the ECC."We have absolutely no idea how long it's going to take."
Despite allegations that vote-rigging was massive and widespread, most of the plastic boxes remain firmly sealed as electoral bodies squabble over how to resolve the crisis,leaving Afghanistan in deadlock.
One month after Afghans voted in their second presidential election, there is little sign that the nation embroiled in a war against Taliban insurgents and in desperate need of reconstruction will have a leader named any time soon.
The UN-backed arbiter the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) has identified just over 2,500 polling stations out of 24,183 that opened on Aug 20 where "clear and convincing evidence of fraud" merits a recount and audit.
But the Independent Election Commission (IEC)- accused of being stacked with Karzai cronies - says such an audit would take six weeks, and are urging an alternative to prevent a prolonged political crisis.
"The concern we raised to the ECC decision is that it includes all 34 provinces, and it will take at least one-and-a-half months,"Daoud Ali Najafi, IEC chief electoral officer,said.
With all the votes counted, Mr Karzai looks on track for re-election with nearly 55% of the vote, his nearest rival Abdullah Abdullah trailing with 27.8%. Turnout was a meagre 38.7%.
The ECC is now walking a delicate tightrope, analysts say, scrambling to come up with a plan to pacify the IEC, other candidates, and international backers of the poll who insist that they will not be party to any whitewash.
"If they don't do the recount, if they don't honour their own instructions, Abdullah will reject the result," said Haroun Mir,of Afghanistan's Centre for Research and Policy Studies, warning of looming "political confrontation".
European Union election monitors last week said that they had identified 1.5 million suspicious ballots - 1.1 million of them cast for Mr Karzai - which merited further investigation. That amounts to a quarter of votes cast.
If the ECC goes ahead with a recount and throws out a significant number of ballots from the 2,500 polling stations, the figures could push Mr Karzai below the threshold needed for victory, sparking a run-off with Mr Abdullah.
The worry is that any second round would have to be held within two months, before harsh winter snows blanket parts of Afghanistan and make the logistics of another vote impossible until the spring.
Mr Najafi said the IEC had done its job and was now awaiting guidance from the ECC on how best to carry out any recount.
"Everything is gone from our hands," he said.
ECC chairman Grant Kippen was not available for comment, but has said in the past that the body wanted to complete their job "as quickly as possible".
Mr Karzai has denied any massive voterigging and says he will accept the outcome of ECC and IEC investigations.
But the incumbent already looks to be on a collision course with his international backers, with his campaign office responding furiously to the EU reports of "massive fraud".
What the ECC is struggling to avoid, Mr Mir said, is being seen as a foreign meddler in Afghanistan's internal affairs. Three of its five commissioners are Westerners, and already the knives are being sharpened.
"It is not justifiable that in a national commission there are foreigners," Nasrullah Stanakzai, a Kabul University law professor,told a panel discussion."This commission does not know Afghanistan."
So far, the ECC has been carrying out investigations based on complaints it received directly, already a painstaking process. The UN said yesterday that an "electoral expert" had arrived in Kabul to assist with the recount.
The official "is advising the IEC and the ECC on how to conduct the partial recount in a timely fashion with integrity so that the final outcome reflects the will of the people",UN spokesman Aleem Siddique said.
He would not name the official, but did not deny a report in London's Sunday Telegraph that he is Carlos Valenzuela, a Colombian with experience of controversial elections who was in Afghanistan during 2005 polls.
"He will be advising the IEC on how to sample polling stations where complaints have been made so that we can speed up the investigation process," Mr Siddique said.
Sitting on broken chairs and surrounded by dusty ballot boxes in a Kabul warehouse,ECC staff examine suspicious ballot boxes,looking for indications of fraud such as unfolded ballots or a tranche of papers all bearing similar marks for one candidate.
"We have been doing this in Kabul for two weeks so far," said Dan Murphy, a technical adviser to the ECC."We have absolutely no idea how long it's going to take."
Socialist aims for closer Turkish ties
Greek opposition socialist leader George Papandreou said he would try to warm relations with Turkey if elected on Oct 4, but Ankara needed to respect EU rules to get a good December progress report from Brussels.
Mr Papandreou, a former foreign minister whose Pasok party is leading opinion polls by a wide margin ahead of the vote, said hurdles had appeared in Greek-Turkish relations in recent years that could affect Turkey's chances for accession to the EU.
"We want to revive this momentum which has been lost but at the same time evaluate the difficulties and the problems that have cropped up in bilateral relations," he said.
Long at odds over territorial issues and the divided island of Cyprus, Greece and Turkey came close to war over a deserted islet in the Aegean Sea in 1996.
Mr Papandreou was instrumental in rebuilding relations with Turkey as foreign minister in the late 1990s.
Relations had since improved but a visit by Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis to Turkey in 2008 failed to produce the desired progress.
Greece has repeatedly protested this year over Turkish fighter jets sorties over populated Greek islands.
Mr Papandreou said Greece wanted to see genuine steps from Turkey on issues such as respecting borders, sovereignty and islands, as well as EU rules.
"Otherwise, it's up in the air," he said, referring to Turkey's EU bid evaluation in December."They know I'm a friend,they know I worked very hard [on relations] but they also know that I'm here to protect our rights."
He said improving relations between the two tense Nato allies would allow a reduction in military spending and greater cooperation in the region.
Greece, which is running a huge debt and high budget deficits, spends about 3% of its GDP on defence.
Mr Papandreou, a former foreign minister whose Pasok party is leading opinion polls by a wide margin ahead of the vote, said hurdles had appeared in Greek-Turkish relations in recent years that could affect Turkey's chances for accession to the EU.
"We want to revive this momentum which has been lost but at the same time evaluate the difficulties and the problems that have cropped up in bilateral relations," he said.
Long at odds over territorial issues and the divided island of Cyprus, Greece and Turkey came close to war over a deserted islet in the Aegean Sea in 1996.
Mr Papandreou was instrumental in rebuilding relations with Turkey as foreign minister in the late 1990s.
Relations had since improved but a visit by Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis to Turkey in 2008 failed to produce the desired progress.
Greece has repeatedly protested this year over Turkish fighter jets sorties over populated Greek islands.
Mr Papandreou said Greece wanted to see genuine steps from Turkey on issues such as respecting borders, sovereignty and islands, as well as EU rules.
"Otherwise, it's up in the air," he said, referring to Turkey's EU bid evaluation in December."They know I'm a friend,they know I worked very hard [on relations] but they also know that I'm here to protect our rights."
He said improving relations between the two tense Nato allies would allow a reduction in military spending and greater cooperation in the region.
Greece, which is running a huge debt and high budget deficits, spends about 3% of its GDP on defence.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Karzai's poll office blasts EU monitors
Afghan President Hamid Karzai's campaign team yesterday criticised EU vote monitors as "irresponsible"for announcing that up to 1.5 million ballots in last month's elections could be fraudulent.
The European Union Election Observation Mission to Afghanistan said earlier yesterday their analysis of the August polls found almost a quarter of the votes counted so far were "suspicious", sparking the fierce reaction.
The statement from Mr Karzai's campaign office said the announcement "is partial, irresponsible and in contradiction with Afghanistan's constitution".
"The role of national and international monitors is to monitor the election process and refer their findings to the Independent Election Commission and the Electoral Complaints Commission," it said.
"We believe the only way we can have a legitimate result out of the current process is to allow the legal institutions to complete the process and refrain from interfering in their affairs," it added.
Dimitra Ioannou, the head of the EU mission, said that of 1.5 million votes they identified as suspicious,1.1 million were cast for Mr Karzai, while 300,000 were for his main rival Abdullah Abdullah.
The remainder were cast for other candidates.
"Massive fraud was taking place at polling station level and when all these ballot boxes arrived at the tally centres,instead of being quarantined and investigated, they were accepted as good results," she said.
Meanwhile, Nato's No 2 general in Europe says there have been achievements in Afghanistan despite aresurgence of violence.
British General John McColl told the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe yesterday that the international community has done much since 2002 to help improve Afghans'lives.
The European Union Election Observation Mission to Afghanistan said earlier yesterday their analysis of the August polls found almost a quarter of the votes counted so far were "suspicious", sparking the fierce reaction.
The statement from Mr Karzai's campaign office said the announcement "is partial, irresponsible and in contradiction with Afghanistan's constitution".
"The role of national and international monitors is to monitor the election process and refer their findings to the Independent Election Commission and the Electoral Complaints Commission," it said.
"We believe the only way we can have a legitimate result out of the current process is to allow the legal institutions to complete the process and refrain from interfering in their affairs," it added.
Dimitra Ioannou, the head of the EU mission, said that of 1.5 million votes they identified as suspicious,1.1 million were cast for Mr Karzai, while 300,000 were for his main rival Abdullah Abdullah.
The remainder were cast for other candidates.
"Massive fraud was taking place at polling station level and when all these ballot boxes arrived at the tally centres,instead of being quarantined and investigated, they were accepted as good results," she said.
Meanwhile, Nato's No 2 general in Europe says there have been achievements in Afghanistan despite aresurgence of violence.
British General John McColl told the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe yesterday that the international community has done much since 2002 to help improve Afghans'lives.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Czech leftists torpedo early election plan
Czech leftist parties torpedoed chances of a November early election yesterday, deepening uncertainty over eroding state finances that the caretaker cabinet warned could eventually cause a meltdown.
The leftist Social Democrats and the far-left Communists rejected an earlier agreed plan to dissolve the lower house of parliament yesterday and allow for an election, effectively killing the motion before it got to a vote.
The expected delay deepens weeks of political turmoil and launches Jan Fischer's non-partisan cabinet originally set up to prepare for an early vote into a government that must try to coerce parties into tax hikes and savings.
It also deepens acrimony between the two main parties, the centre-right Civic Democrats, whose government fell during its European Union presidency in March, and the Social Democrats.
Despite those factors, however,analysts said putting the vote off until next summer could potentially give quarrelling parties room to reach an agreement to mend the crisis-hit budget deficit, which has tripled this year and is still rising.
The leftist Social Democrats and the far-left Communists rejected an earlier agreed plan to dissolve the lower house of parliament yesterday and allow for an election, effectively killing the motion before it got to a vote.
The expected delay deepens weeks of political turmoil and launches Jan Fischer's non-partisan cabinet originally set up to prepare for an early vote into a government that must try to coerce parties into tax hikes and savings.
It also deepens acrimony between the two main parties, the centre-right Civic Democrats, whose government fell during its European Union presidency in March, and the Social Democrats.
Despite those factors, however,analysts said putting the vote off until next summer could potentially give quarrelling parties room to reach an agreement to mend the crisis-hit budget deficit, which has tripled this year and is still rising.
Monday, September 14, 2009
Ruling Socialist party has slight edge ahead of vote
Portugal's ruling Socialists were slightly ahead in two opinion polls published on Saturday two weeks before a parliamentary election, but fell short of the absolute majority they have enjoyed the past four years.
In both polls, the margin of error is larger than the difference between the Socialists and the centre-right PSD party.It means the PSD could still garner more votes in the Sept 27 ballot, also short of a working majority.
In a TV debate with Socialist Prime Minister Jose Socrates, PSD leader Manuela Ferreira Leite said that "a political understanding with Socrates is out of the question". She said she would not mind forming a minority government if her party won the ballot.
"I am not totally convinced that an absolute majority is needed. There have been minority governments in the past that governed through the end of their term," she said.
Some analysts do not rule out a central bloc with the participation of the two main parties, and say President Anibal Cavaco Silva may try to broker such a coalition if no party emerges with a clear mandate. Mr Socrates avoided commenting on any possible cooperation with the PSD, saying only:"I am not a candidate against anyone."
Analysts said disagreements over economic and social issues and mutual accusations made in the debate were nothing new and were unlikely to tip the balance either way.
"I don't think Socrates convinced any left-wing undecideds to vote for him,which is what he had to do to extend the lead. Otherwise, the debate will hardly have any impact on the voting pattern,"analyst Antonio Costa Pinto said
The opinion polls showed conflicting trends when compared to the previous surveys in July, the former showing the Socialists gaining 1.4 percentage points to 33.6%. Another poll showed the voting intentions for the Socialists dropping slightly to 35.3%. Portuguese opinion polls failed to predict the 2005 majority won by the Socialists. The PSD won the European elections in June, with 31.7%against 26.6% for the Socialists, confounding most expectations.
In both polls, the margin of error is larger than the difference between the Socialists and the centre-right PSD party.It means the PSD could still garner more votes in the Sept 27 ballot, also short of a working majority.
In a TV debate with Socialist Prime Minister Jose Socrates, PSD leader Manuela Ferreira Leite said that "a political understanding with Socrates is out of the question". She said she would not mind forming a minority government if her party won the ballot.
"I am not totally convinced that an absolute majority is needed. There have been minority governments in the past that governed through the end of their term," she said.
Some analysts do not rule out a central bloc with the participation of the two main parties, and say President Anibal Cavaco Silva may try to broker such a coalition if no party emerges with a clear mandate. Mr Socrates avoided commenting on any possible cooperation with the PSD, saying only:"I am not a candidate against anyone."
Analysts said disagreements over economic and social issues and mutual accusations made in the debate were nothing new and were unlikely to tip the balance either way.
"I don't think Socrates convinced any left-wing undecideds to vote for him,which is what he had to do to extend the lead. Otherwise, the debate will hardly have any impact on the voting pattern,"analyst Antonio Costa Pinto said
The opinion polls showed conflicting trends when compared to the previous surveys in July, the former showing the Socialists gaining 1.4 percentage points to 33.6%. Another poll showed the voting intentions for the Socialists dropping slightly to 35.3%. Portuguese opinion polls failed to predict the 2005 majority won by the Socialists. The PSD won the European elections in June, with 31.7%against 26.6% for the Socialists, confounding most expectations.
Friday, September 11, 2009
Cory Aquino's son to run for president
The son of former Philippine president Cory Aquino, heroine of the 1986 People Power movement, said yesterday he would run for president, putting him among the front-runners for next May's election.
While economists have applauded Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino's likely platform of clean government, they have also pointed to his lack of executive experience and doubts about his ability to bring economic reform.
"I accept the plea of the nation. I also accept the instructions of my parents,"Mr Aquino said at the same hall where his mother, who died last month, was proclaimed president over 23 years ago."I accept the responsibility to continue the fight for the country."
At least six other candidates, mostly senators, have said they will contest next year's vote.
"Noynoy doesn't seem to have solid credentials apart from being the good guy and son of a couple of national heroes," an analyst said.
Some analysts have said an Aquino presidency may be slow to amend the 1987 constitution adopted during the rule of his mother. Reform of some of that document's economic provisions,which include restrictions on foreign investment, is seen as key to promoting growth.
While economists have applauded Senator Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino's likely platform of clean government, they have also pointed to his lack of executive experience and doubts about his ability to bring economic reform.
"I accept the plea of the nation. I also accept the instructions of my parents,"Mr Aquino said at the same hall where his mother, who died last month, was proclaimed president over 23 years ago."I accept the responsibility to continue the fight for the country."
At least six other candidates, mostly senators, have said they will contest next year's vote.
"Noynoy doesn't seem to have solid credentials apart from being the good guy and son of a couple of national heroes," an analyst said.
Some analysts have said an Aquino presidency may be slow to amend the 1987 constitution adopted during the rule of his mother. Reform of some of that document's economic provisions,which include restrictions on foreign investment, is seen as key to promoting growth.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Karzai passes 50% mark in Afghan vote
President Hamid Karzai surpassed for the first time the 50%threshold needed to avoid a run-off in Afghanistan's presidential election,according to preliminary results released yesterday.
But with allegations of fraud on the rise, a UN-backed commission ordered a re-count of tainted ballots.
The chief electoral officer of the Afghan-run Independent Election Commission, Daoud Ali Najafi, said that recounting votes could take "two or three months", meaning the already over-extended election is far from over.
With results in from almost 92% of the country's polling sites, Mr Karzai has 54.1% of the votes, pushing him over the threshold that would allow him to declare victory outright and avoid a run-off with his main challenger,Abdullah Abdullah.
As more results have come in from the south, where Mr Karzai's support is strong, former foreign minister Abdullah's standing has slipped dramatically. Mr Abdullah now has 28.3%of the vote.
But doubts are growing about the credibility of the election.
The Afghan-run election commission has already quarantined ballots from more than 600 polling stations ruled to have been spoiled or tainted by fraud, out of more than 26,000 polling stations. The results announced yesterday discount those ballots. The UNbacked Electoral Complaints Commission will investigate and determine their validity.
Separately, the Electoral Complaints Commission, a separate UN-backed body charged with investigating the vote, ordered a re-count yesterday at polling stations where it had found "convincing evidence" of fraud, meaning Mr Karzai could still have votes taken away from him. More than 720 major fraud charges have been lodged with the complaints commission.
Nato admits airstrike killed civilians
Nato-led forces acknowledged for the first time yesterday that Afghan civilians were killed in a Germanordered airstrike last week on two stolen fuel tankers, and the top commander appointed a team to investigate.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said yesterday that her government won't accept "premature judgments"about the incident. Germany's military has been criticised for calling in last week's strike by a US jet on two hijacked tanker trucks in Kunduz province and for initially insisting that it appeared only militants were killed. Local officials have said civilians were among more than 50 killed, but there have been conflicting claims over how many.
A statement yesterday from the Natoled force said that commanders originally believed the tankers were surrounded only by Taliban insurgents,but that a subsequent review showed "civilians also were killed and injured in the strike".
Previously, officials had said only that civilians may have been wounded.
The top US and Nato commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, appointed a Canadian major-general to lead the investigation.A US air force officer and a German officer are also on the investigating team. The incident involved both German and US forces.
But with allegations of fraud on the rise, a UN-backed commission ordered a re-count of tainted ballots.
The chief electoral officer of the Afghan-run Independent Election Commission, Daoud Ali Najafi, said that recounting votes could take "two or three months", meaning the already over-extended election is far from over.
With results in from almost 92% of the country's polling sites, Mr Karzai has 54.1% of the votes, pushing him over the threshold that would allow him to declare victory outright and avoid a run-off with his main challenger,Abdullah Abdullah.
As more results have come in from the south, where Mr Karzai's support is strong, former foreign minister Abdullah's standing has slipped dramatically. Mr Abdullah now has 28.3%of the vote.
But doubts are growing about the credibility of the election.
The Afghan-run election commission has already quarantined ballots from more than 600 polling stations ruled to have been spoiled or tainted by fraud, out of more than 26,000 polling stations. The results announced yesterday discount those ballots. The UNbacked Electoral Complaints Commission will investigate and determine their validity.
Separately, the Electoral Complaints Commission, a separate UN-backed body charged with investigating the vote, ordered a re-count yesterday at polling stations where it had found "convincing evidence" of fraud, meaning Mr Karzai could still have votes taken away from him. More than 720 major fraud charges have been lodged with the complaints commission.
Nato admits airstrike killed civilians
Nato-led forces acknowledged for the first time yesterday that Afghan civilians were killed in a Germanordered airstrike last week on two stolen fuel tankers, and the top commander appointed a team to investigate.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel said yesterday that her government won't accept "premature judgments"about the incident. Germany's military has been criticised for calling in last week's strike by a US jet on two hijacked tanker trucks in Kunduz province and for initially insisting that it appeared only militants were killed. Local officials have said civilians were among more than 50 killed, but there have been conflicting claims over how many.
A statement yesterday from the Natoled force said that commanders originally believed the tankers were surrounded only by Taliban insurgents,but that a subsequent review showed "civilians also were killed and injured in the strike".
Previously, officials had said only that civilians may have been wounded.
The top US and Nato commander in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal, appointed a Canadian major-general to lead the investigation.A US air force officer and a German officer are also on the investigating team. The incident involved both German and US forces.
Monday, September 7, 2009
Charity slams "hospital raid" by US troops
A Swedish charity levelled accusations yesterday at US troops that it said stormed through a hospital in central Afghanistan, breaking down doors and tying up staff in a search for militants. The US military said it was investigating.
The allegation that soldiers violated the neutrality of a medical facility follows the reported deaths of Afghan civilians in a US airstrike in the country's north last week. An Afghan human rights group said yesterday the strike on two hijacked fuel tankers last week may have killed as many as 70 civilians in Kunduz province.
The Swedish Committee for Afghanistan said yesterday that the US Army's 10th Mountain Division entered the charity's hospital without permission to look for insurgents in Wardak province, southwest of Kabul.
"This is simply not acceptable," said Anders Fange, the charity's country director, adding that the troops came to the hospital looking for Taliban insurgents late at night last Wednesday.
Mr Fange said they kicked in doors,tied up four hospital employees and two family members of patients, and forced patients out of beds during the search. When they left two hours later,the unit ordered hospital staff to inform coalition forces if any wounded militants were admitted, and the military would decide if they could be treated,Mr Fange said.
The staff refused, he said."That would put our staff at risk and make the hospital a target."
The charity said on its website that the troops' actions were not only a violation of humanitarian principles but also went against an agreement between Nato forces and charities working in the area.
"We demand guarantees ... that such violations will not be repeated and that this is made clear to commanders in the field," the statement said.
A US military spokeswoman confirmed that the hospital was searched last week. She said the military was looking into the incident.
"We take allegations like this seriously," she said.
Meanwhile, the New York Times reported on Sunday that Afghans loyal to President Hamid Karzai set up hundreds of fictitious polling sites for last month's elections, where no one voted but hundreds of thousands of ballots were still recorded toward the president's re-election,.
Citing unnamed senior Western and Afghan officials, the newspaper said there were as many as 800 such fake sites that existed only on paper.
Local workers reported that hundreds, and in some cases thousands,of votes for Mr Karzai came from each of those places, the report said.
"We think that about 15% of the polling sites never opened on election day," a senior Western diplomat told the Times ."But they still managed to report thousands of ballots for Karzai."
Karzai supporters also took over around 800 legitimate polling centres and used them to fraudulently report tens of thousands of additional ballots for the president, the report said. The result is that in some provinces, the number of ballots cast for Mr Karzai may exceed the people who actually voted by a factor of 10.
In Berlin on Sunday, Britain, France and Germany unveiled proposals for an international conference on Afghanistan later this year in order to press Afghans to take more responsibility for their own country.
"What is important, and this is our joint view, is to apply pressure in order to find a way to get the Afghans to appreciate that they have to take responsibility step by step," Chancellor Angela Merkel told a joint press briefing with Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
The location of the conference has yet to be decided.
The allegation that soldiers violated the neutrality of a medical facility follows the reported deaths of Afghan civilians in a US airstrike in the country's north last week. An Afghan human rights group said yesterday the strike on two hijacked fuel tankers last week may have killed as many as 70 civilians in Kunduz province.
The Swedish Committee for Afghanistan said yesterday that the US Army's 10th Mountain Division entered the charity's hospital without permission to look for insurgents in Wardak province, southwest of Kabul.
"This is simply not acceptable," said Anders Fange, the charity's country director, adding that the troops came to the hospital looking for Taliban insurgents late at night last Wednesday.
Mr Fange said they kicked in doors,tied up four hospital employees and two family members of patients, and forced patients out of beds during the search. When they left two hours later,the unit ordered hospital staff to inform coalition forces if any wounded militants were admitted, and the military would decide if they could be treated,Mr Fange said.
The staff refused, he said."That would put our staff at risk and make the hospital a target."
The charity said on its website that the troops' actions were not only a violation of humanitarian principles but also went against an agreement between Nato forces and charities working in the area.
"We demand guarantees ... that such violations will not be repeated and that this is made clear to commanders in the field," the statement said.
A US military spokeswoman confirmed that the hospital was searched last week. She said the military was looking into the incident.
"We take allegations like this seriously," she said.
Meanwhile, the New York Times reported on Sunday that Afghans loyal to President Hamid Karzai set up hundreds of fictitious polling sites for last month's elections, where no one voted but hundreds of thousands of ballots were still recorded toward the president's re-election,.
Citing unnamed senior Western and Afghan officials, the newspaper said there were as many as 800 such fake sites that existed only on paper.
Local workers reported that hundreds, and in some cases thousands,of votes for Mr Karzai came from each of those places, the report said.
"We think that about 15% of the polling sites never opened on election day," a senior Western diplomat told the Times ."But they still managed to report thousands of ballots for Karzai."
Karzai supporters also took over around 800 legitimate polling centres and used them to fraudulently report tens of thousands of additional ballots for the president, the report said. The result is that in some provinces, the number of ballots cast for Mr Karzai may exceed the people who actually voted by a factor of 10.
In Berlin on Sunday, Britain, France and Germany unveiled proposals for an international conference on Afghanistan later this year in order to press Afghans to take more responsibility for their own country.
"What is important, and this is our joint view, is to apply pressure in order to find a way to get the Afghans to appreciate that they have to take responsibility step by step," Chancellor Angela Merkel told a joint press briefing with Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
The location of the conference has yet to be decided.
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Vote fraud mars TAO elections
Tambon administration organisation elections held yesterday have been marred by widespread vote-buying allegations.
Poll cheats are suspected of spending more money than ever in the elections which were held in 2,959 tambons across 74 provinces.
The chair of the People's Network for Election Thailand (Pnet) in Ayutthaya,Chollada Boonkasem, said vote-buying was rampant in several tambons in the central province. Voters were offered as much as 1,000 baht to vote for candidates for the position of TAO chair, and 200 baht to 300 baht for TAO rank-and-file members.
Most cash handouts were reported in Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phachi,Uthai, Sena and Bang Sai districts, Ms Chollada said, as she was handing poll fraud evidence to the provincial election committee. There are 93 tambons in Ayutthaya.
Mana Yaemchabok, an election committee member in Polkrang in the northeastern province of Nakhon Ratchasima,said poll supervisors and police were out in force looking for vote buyers on Saturday night. No violations were reported.
Thawee Chunkor, director of the Buri Ram election commission, said the atmosphere in many tambons in the northeastern province was lively. He expected the voter turnout to top 70%.
Mr Thawee said his panel had not received any complaints about poll violations.
But an observer said a group of teenagers was seen handing out pre-paid mobile phone cards to voters in several areas. Cash handouts of about 300 baht to 500 baht were also made, he said.
In the southern province of Ranong,voters flocked to the polls amid heavy rain.
Kamol Wipadapisut, chairman of the Ranong provincial election office, said the office received a complaint that a village head in tambon Ngao had failed to maintain his neutrality by suggesting that voters support certain candidates.The committee was investigating.
In the lower southern province of Trang, two election canvassers were arrested with cash they allegedly were using to buy votes.
Sompong Buaban, chair of the provincial election commission, said three complaints had been lodged with the commission, including the one about two arrested canvassers in Natam Nua TAO in Muang district.
The atmosphere in the three restive southern border provinces of Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani was quiet.
In Yala, only a small number of voters showed up in tightly guarded Pron tambon in Muang district to cast their ballot.
Election Commission secretarygeneral Suthiphon Thaveechaiyagarn said the turnout around the country was expected to be about 70%.
Official results were expected to be declared by the EC this week, he said.
Poll cheats are suspected of spending more money than ever in the elections which were held in 2,959 tambons across 74 provinces.
The chair of the People's Network for Election Thailand (Pnet) in Ayutthaya,Chollada Boonkasem, said vote-buying was rampant in several tambons in the central province. Voters were offered as much as 1,000 baht to vote for candidates for the position of TAO chair, and 200 baht to 300 baht for TAO rank-and-file members.
Most cash handouts were reported in Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya, Phachi,Uthai, Sena and Bang Sai districts, Ms Chollada said, as she was handing poll fraud evidence to the provincial election committee. There are 93 tambons in Ayutthaya.
Mana Yaemchabok, an election committee member in Polkrang in the northeastern province of Nakhon Ratchasima,said poll supervisors and police were out in force looking for vote buyers on Saturday night. No violations were reported.
Thawee Chunkor, director of the Buri Ram election commission, said the atmosphere in many tambons in the northeastern province was lively. He expected the voter turnout to top 70%.
Mr Thawee said his panel had not received any complaints about poll violations.
But an observer said a group of teenagers was seen handing out pre-paid mobile phone cards to voters in several areas. Cash handouts of about 300 baht to 500 baht were also made, he said.
In the southern province of Ranong,voters flocked to the polls amid heavy rain.
Kamol Wipadapisut, chairman of the Ranong provincial election office, said the office received a complaint that a village head in tambon Ngao had failed to maintain his neutrality by suggesting that voters support certain candidates.The committee was investigating.
In the lower southern province of Trang, two election canvassers were arrested with cash they allegedly were using to buy votes.
Sompong Buaban, chair of the provincial election commission, said three complaints had been lodged with the commission, including the one about two arrested canvassers in Natam Nua TAO in Muang district.
The atmosphere in the three restive southern border provinces of Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani was quiet.
In Yala, only a small number of voters showed up in tightly guarded Pron tambon in Muang district to cast their ballot.
Election Commission secretarygeneral Suthiphon Thaveechaiyagarn said the turnout around the country was expected to be about 70%.
Official results were expected to be declared by the EC this week, he said.
Vote-buyers top up credit
Reports of vote-buying and intimidation mounted in some provinces yesterday as poll organisers mobilised resources to ensure today's country-wide local elections are clean and fair.
People across the country go to polling stations today to elect members of 2,959 tambon administrative organisations.
The polls, in which more than 117,000 people are vying for TAO seats and more than 6,400 people are running for TAO mayoral posts, are expected to be fierce in several areas.
Prasit Kotchakotra, chairman of Kalasin provincial election committee, said vote-buying allegations surfaced in many areas as the polls approached.
More than 200 million baht was believed to have changed hands to elect members of 98 TAOs, he said.
Gen Weerawut Songsai, chairman of Nakhon Ratchasima provincial election committee, said canvassers had come up with a new form of vote-buying.
Instead of handing out cash, the campaigners transferred call credits to voters'mobile phones, which made it more difficult to track vote-buying, he noted.
In Kamphaeng Phet's Kosamphinakhon district, Sithon Piarodwong, clerk of tambon Lan Dok Mai administrative organisation, said police and election staff would be deployed at polling stations.
He said the contest was fierce because three candidates are running for mayor.
Prapun Naigowit, member of the Election Commission, said the poll agency would use all the resources at its disposal to ensure fair elections.
In the northeastern province, elections are being held at 100 TAOs in 26 districts.
EC member Sodsri Sattayatham said the provincial committee would look into a complaint against local election staff in Nakhon Ratchasima for failing to be politically neutral.
Election staff in tambon Polkrang in Muang district were accused of favouritism.
Mrs Sodsri, who inspected poll preparations in Nakhon Ratchasima yesterday, said she had told election panels to strictly enforce the law.
People across the country go to polling stations today to elect members of 2,959 tambon administrative organisations.
The polls, in which more than 117,000 people are vying for TAO seats and more than 6,400 people are running for TAO mayoral posts, are expected to be fierce in several areas.
Prasit Kotchakotra, chairman of Kalasin provincial election committee, said vote-buying allegations surfaced in many areas as the polls approached.
More than 200 million baht was believed to have changed hands to elect members of 98 TAOs, he said.
Gen Weerawut Songsai, chairman of Nakhon Ratchasima provincial election committee, said canvassers had come up with a new form of vote-buying.
Instead of handing out cash, the campaigners transferred call credits to voters'mobile phones, which made it more difficult to track vote-buying, he noted.
In Kamphaeng Phet's Kosamphinakhon district, Sithon Piarodwong, clerk of tambon Lan Dok Mai administrative organisation, said police and election staff would be deployed at polling stations.
He said the contest was fierce because three candidates are running for mayor.
Prapun Naigowit, member of the Election Commission, said the poll agency would use all the resources at its disposal to ensure fair elections.
In the northeastern province, elections are being held at 100 TAOs in 26 districts.
EC member Sodsri Sattayatham said the provincial committee would look into a complaint against local election staff in Nakhon Ratchasima for failing to be politically neutral.
Election staff in tambon Polkrang in Muang district were accused of favouritism.
Mrs Sodsri, who inspected poll preparations in Nakhon Ratchasima yesterday, said she had told election panels to strictly enforce the law.
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