The Democrats' solution is to move Japan away from a corporate-centric economic model to one that focuses on helping people.
Sunday's election results in Japan may seem like a clear mandate for change. But looks can be misleading.Japan's voters resoundingly kicked out the party that has governed their country for virtually all the past half century. The newly empowered Democratic Party of Japan's (DPJ) time to celebrate, though, could be shortlived.
They've made their promises, and now they have to deliver - a tall order for a party with a shaky mandate. The numbers may show a landslide, but most voters were seen as venting dissatisfaction with the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) more so than endorsing the policies of the opposition DPJ.
The beneficiary of the public's frustration is the Democratic Party, which has laid out a populist platform with promises to expand the country's social safety net. The media projected late Sunday night that the party would capture 300 of 480 lower house seats - more than enough to control the national agenda.
Many Democratic candidates, who have never experienced such sweet vic-tory, seemed stunned by the results,overcome with emotion by the historic nature of their win.
Savouring triumph now is probably a good idea. The political high is unlikely to last very long. As President Barack Obama is discovering now with healthcare reform, touting change is a lot easier than making it happen.
The Democrats' first task will be to convince a sceptical public that they can actually lead.
"I feel very insecure with the Democratic Party of Japan," said 65-year-old voter Shuji Ueki a few hours after the polls closed."They don't have a record."
Indeed, the Democrats are untested,made up of an inexperienced group of left-wing activists and LDP defectors.The party is just 11 years old, and only a handful have served in top government positions.
Their rise to power - and ability to enact change -comes at a critical crossroads for the world's second-largest economy.
Japan managed to climb out of a year-long recession in the second quarter,but its economy remains weak. Unemployment and anxiety over falling wages threatens to undermine any recovery.The jobless rate has risen to a record 5.7%. After a rapid succession of three administrations in three years, Japan is facing its worst crisis of confidence in decades.
In the long-term it faces a bleak outlook if it isn't able to figure out how to cope with a rapidly ageing and shrinking population. Government estimates predict the figure will drop to 115 million in 2030 and fall below 100 million by the middle of the century.
The Democrats' solution is to move Japan away from a corporate-centric economic model to one that focuses on helping people. They have proposed an expensive array of initiatives: cash handouts to families and farmers, toll-free highways, a higher minimum wage and tax cuts. The estimated bill comes to 16.8 trillion yen (US$179 billion) when fully implemented starting in the 2013 fiscal year.
The party has said it plans to cut "waste" and rely on untapped financial reserves to fund their programmes. But with Japan's public debt heading toward 200% of gross domestic product, the Democrats' plan has been criticised as a financial fantasy that would worsen Japan's precarious fiscal health.
The Democrats are also under scrutiny for their positions on national security and foreign policy.
Party leader Yukio Hatoyama, set to become Japan's next prime minister,has been vocal about distancing the country from Washington and forging closer ties with its Asian neighbours.
As opposition leader, he routinely criticised the pro-US Liberal Democrats for joining in refuelling operations in the Indian Ocean in support of American troops in Afghanistan - a mission he says he will halt - and the role of the 50,000 American troops deployed throughout Japan under a post-World War Two mutual security pact.
But the Democrats' most formidable roadblock will probably be Japan's massive bureaucracy, which for decades has had a cosy relationship with the LDP and effectively runs the government.The new ruling party has vowed to do what no one has managed to so far:limit the bureaucracy's power and hand more control over to elected officials.
Ichiro Ozawa, co-founder of the party,expressed quiet confidence:"We have no fear, and we will steadily achieve our campaign promises one by one."
Monday, August 31, 2009
Friday, August 28, 2009
Can the Democratic Party turn Japan around?
Japan might be standing at a turning point in its history as parliamentary elections appear likely to unseat the party that has ruled Japan nearly continuously for more than 50 years.
With judgement day this Sunday, the main opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), is leading in the latest opinion polls with 36% voter support. The figure is 20 points higher than that for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
Voters have increasingly becoming dissatisfied with the coalition government of the LDP and the New Komeito party after it went through three prime ministers in three years; current Prime Minister Taro Aso failed to demonstrate strong leadership, his administration neglected to deal with long-term economic problems, a series of scandals rocked the LDP and the party failed to address domestic concerns, such as Japan's strained pension system and its ageing, shrinking population.
Many analysts said the DPJ, which won control of the upper House of Councillors in 2007 elections, has a good chance of repeating that victory on Sunday for the House of Representatives by securing a majority of 241 seats or more in the more powerful, lower chamber of the Diet. Such a result would more than double the 112 seats the party now holds.
DPJ president Yukio Hatoyama, who is likely to become prime minister if his party wins, has promised voters he would bring change to Japan by cutting wasteful spending but not imposing a burden on citizens to pay back the national debt,which, at about 800 trillion yen (US$8.5 trillion), exceeds 160% of the nation's gross domestic product.
Mr Hatoyama also has vowed to revitalise the world's second-largest economy by increasing household incomes and encouraging spending.
Voters are hopeful, but the promises sound too good to be true to political observers, and the DPJ faces numerous obstacles to bringing about the change it has promised for Japan.
Some analysts have criticised the party's economic stimulus plan to draw Japan out of its worst post-war economic slump as being unrealistic.
While Mr Hatoyama said he plans to review the current government's recordhigh stimulus package, his party's manifesto promises to raise monthly child allowances for children, scrap expressway tolls and gasoline taxes as part of its plan to stimulate consumer spending.
It said it could secure funds for its proposed programmes by cutting public works projects and increasing domestic demand while at the same time holding off on a sales tax hike for the next four years.
The LDP has questioned how the DPJ's proposals would be paid for, called them a "pipe dream" and said they would require "magic" to be realised.
Analysts and the LDP also warned of the DPJ's lack of experience in running the government.
Only a handful of party members have experience serving in ministerial posts or in the prime minister's office. The party is largely made up of LDP defectors,Social Democrats and former trade unionists.
"The DPJ has many young, brilliant candidates," political analyst Takao Toshikawa said,"but the party does not have enough competent personnel."
The DPJ's most experienced, foremost strategist is former party leader and seasoned politician Ichiro Ozawa, who stepped down in May amid a political funding scandal.
His successor, Mr Hatoyama, has also found himself entangled in the ongoing investigation of the donation scandal,in which his office used deceased people's names to report about 22 million yen ($239,000) in contributions made from 2005 to 2009.
Even though Mr Ozawa, who left the LDP in frustration over the party's inability to reform, gave up the DPJ's top post, his influence within the party remains strong, analysts said - enough that he might act as "a shadow shogun"to Mr Hatoyama if the party takes power.
"Hatoyama doesn't have enough experience and stratagem compared with Ozawa," Mr Toshikawa said.
Mr Ozawa's reputation of being a shrewd manipulator and his success and experience in the kind of backroom politics the voters now abhor may prove as big a burden to the DPJ as his experience is a boon.
A third issue for the DPJ should it win is how it would deal with Japan's powerful bureaucrats, who have a close relationship with the LDP and helped keep that party in power for so long.
Mr Hatoyama has argued that politics in Japan is led by its bureaucrats rather than its politicians. The 62-year-old centrist has vowed to wrest control of the budget and policy from Japan's ministries - a job that political observers said would be a monumental one and would also determine the success of a DPJ-led government.
However, the only non-LDP governments to run Japan since 1955 lasted less than a year in the 1990s, in part because of bureaucratic resistance to their policies. Even the popular, reformminded LDP premier Junichiro Koizumi,who left office in 2006, found it difficult to push change past the entrenched civil service.
While disgruntlement among voters could hand the DPJ an election victory and bring about a historic change in Japan's government, it would far from ensure DPJ-touted reforms.
With judgement day this Sunday, the main opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), is leading in the latest opinion polls with 36% voter support. The figure is 20 points higher than that for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
Voters have increasingly becoming dissatisfied with the coalition government of the LDP and the New Komeito party after it went through three prime ministers in three years; current Prime Minister Taro Aso failed to demonstrate strong leadership, his administration neglected to deal with long-term economic problems, a series of scandals rocked the LDP and the party failed to address domestic concerns, such as Japan's strained pension system and its ageing, shrinking population.
Many analysts said the DPJ, which won control of the upper House of Councillors in 2007 elections, has a good chance of repeating that victory on Sunday for the House of Representatives by securing a majority of 241 seats or more in the more powerful, lower chamber of the Diet. Such a result would more than double the 112 seats the party now holds.
DPJ president Yukio Hatoyama, who is likely to become prime minister if his party wins, has promised voters he would bring change to Japan by cutting wasteful spending but not imposing a burden on citizens to pay back the national debt,which, at about 800 trillion yen (US$8.5 trillion), exceeds 160% of the nation's gross domestic product.
Mr Hatoyama also has vowed to revitalise the world's second-largest economy by increasing household incomes and encouraging spending.
Voters are hopeful, but the promises sound too good to be true to political observers, and the DPJ faces numerous obstacles to bringing about the change it has promised for Japan.
Some analysts have criticised the party's economic stimulus plan to draw Japan out of its worst post-war economic slump as being unrealistic.
While Mr Hatoyama said he plans to review the current government's recordhigh stimulus package, his party's manifesto promises to raise monthly child allowances for children, scrap expressway tolls and gasoline taxes as part of its plan to stimulate consumer spending.
It said it could secure funds for its proposed programmes by cutting public works projects and increasing domestic demand while at the same time holding off on a sales tax hike for the next four years.
The LDP has questioned how the DPJ's proposals would be paid for, called them a "pipe dream" and said they would require "magic" to be realised.
Analysts and the LDP also warned of the DPJ's lack of experience in running the government.
Only a handful of party members have experience serving in ministerial posts or in the prime minister's office. The party is largely made up of LDP defectors,Social Democrats and former trade unionists.
"The DPJ has many young, brilliant candidates," political analyst Takao Toshikawa said,"but the party does not have enough competent personnel."
The DPJ's most experienced, foremost strategist is former party leader and seasoned politician Ichiro Ozawa, who stepped down in May amid a political funding scandal.
His successor, Mr Hatoyama, has also found himself entangled in the ongoing investigation of the donation scandal,in which his office used deceased people's names to report about 22 million yen ($239,000) in contributions made from 2005 to 2009.
Even though Mr Ozawa, who left the LDP in frustration over the party's inability to reform, gave up the DPJ's top post, his influence within the party remains strong, analysts said - enough that he might act as "a shadow shogun"to Mr Hatoyama if the party takes power.
"Hatoyama doesn't have enough experience and stratagem compared with Ozawa," Mr Toshikawa said.
Mr Ozawa's reputation of being a shrewd manipulator and his success and experience in the kind of backroom politics the voters now abhor may prove as big a burden to the DPJ as his experience is a boon.
A third issue for the DPJ should it win is how it would deal with Japan's powerful bureaucrats, who have a close relationship with the LDP and helped keep that party in power for so long.
Mr Hatoyama has argued that politics in Japan is led by its bureaucrats rather than its politicians. The 62-year-old centrist has vowed to wrest control of the budget and policy from Japan's ministries - a job that political observers said would be a monumental one and would also determine the success of a DPJ-led government.
However, the only non-LDP governments to run Japan since 1955 lasted less than a year in the 1990s, in part because of bureaucratic resistance to their policies. Even the popular, reformminded LDP premier Junichiro Koizumi,who left office in 2006, found it difficult to push change past the entrenched civil service.
While disgruntlement among voters could hand the DPJ an election victory and bring about a historic change in Japan's government, it would far from ensure DPJ-touted reforms.
Japan media predicts ruling LDP faces rout
Japan's opposition Democratic Party looks set for a landslide victory in an election on Sunday, polls show, ending over five decades of almost unbroken rule by the conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
Yukio Hatoyama's Democrats have promised to focus spending on households, cut waste and wrest control of policy from the hands of bureaucrats,a shift from the business-friendly LDP.
Japanese media predict the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will win,ending a deadlock in parliament where the party and its allies control the less powerful upper chamber.
Financial markets would generally welcome the prospect of smoother policy-making as Japan tries to revive its economy and deal with the challenges of an ageing, shrinking population. But some analysts worry the DPJ's ambitious spending plans could inflate already sky-high public debt and push up long-term interest rates.
If the DPJ win a two-thirds majority in the 480-seat lower house, they could enact laws rejected by the upper chamber. That is unlikely to be necessary soon, but would be key if the LDP and its partner win an upper house poll in the middle of next year. Even if the Democrats win a majority, they would need help from the small leftist Social Democratic Party and conservative People's New Party to pass bills smoothly. But a bigger Democratic majority means they would have to pay less attention to their allies, making policy formation easier.
Too big a win, however, could make managing the party harder.
A victorious Democratic government would quickly focus on keeping voter support ahead of the 2010 upper house poll, probably by keeping pledges to boost household incomes.
But the government could be distracted if opponents zero in on a scandal in which Mr Hatoyama's aide reported donations from people who turned out to be dead.
If the Democratic Party falls short of a majority, it could still take power by forming a coalition with two smaller allies. That would mean it would need to listen more to the Social Democrats and the People's New Party, and the coalition could could have trouble agreeing on policies, especially in the areas of security and diplomacy, where differences are most acute. If the Democrats stumble in the final days and the margin of victory on either side is very small, the LDP and Democrats would each try to woo defectors or small parties to form a coalition.
The LDP has sought to lure back conservative voters with charges that the Democrats are spendthrift, weak on security and unpatriotic.
Forecasts for a landslide opposition victory could also prompt some riskaverse voters to opt for the LDP,although analysts said there were few signs that this was occurring.
A fuzzy outcome would delay the formation of a new government,although parliament must meet to elect a prime minister within 30 days.
Policy implementation would be difficult, since lawmakers might not necessarily vie for power along clear policy lines. Opinion polls suggest this is unlikely and if the LDP and its junior partner stay in power, they will almost certainly lose the two-thirds majority that has enabled them to enact laws rejected by the opposition-controlled upper chamber.
The policy stalemate would worsen,at least until the 2010 upper house poll. If the deadlock dragged on, the idea of a "grand coalition" among ruling and opposition blocs could be revived as a way to break the deadlock.
One of Prime Minister Taro Aso's predecessors, Yasuo Fukuda, tried to form such a coalition with then-DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa, but Mr Ozawa's party reject the notion.
Yukio Hatoyama's Democrats have promised to focus spending on households, cut waste and wrest control of policy from the hands of bureaucrats,a shift from the business-friendly LDP.
Japanese media predict the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) will win,ending a deadlock in parliament where the party and its allies control the less powerful upper chamber.
Financial markets would generally welcome the prospect of smoother policy-making as Japan tries to revive its economy and deal with the challenges of an ageing, shrinking population. But some analysts worry the DPJ's ambitious spending plans could inflate already sky-high public debt and push up long-term interest rates.
If the DPJ win a two-thirds majority in the 480-seat lower house, they could enact laws rejected by the upper chamber. That is unlikely to be necessary soon, but would be key if the LDP and its partner win an upper house poll in the middle of next year. Even if the Democrats win a majority, they would need help from the small leftist Social Democratic Party and conservative People's New Party to pass bills smoothly. But a bigger Democratic majority means they would have to pay less attention to their allies, making policy formation easier.
Too big a win, however, could make managing the party harder.
A victorious Democratic government would quickly focus on keeping voter support ahead of the 2010 upper house poll, probably by keeping pledges to boost household incomes.
But the government could be distracted if opponents zero in on a scandal in which Mr Hatoyama's aide reported donations from people who turned out to be dead.
If the Democratic Party falls short of a majority, it could still take power by forming a coalition with two smaller allies. That would mean it would need to listen more to the Social Democrats and the People's New Party, and the coalition could could have trouble agreeing on policies, especially in the areas of security and diplomacy, where differences are most acute. If the Democrats stumble in the final days and the margin of victory on either side is very small, the LDP and Democrats would each try to woo defectors or small parties to form a coalition.
The LDP has sought to lure back conservative voters with charges that the Democrats are spendthrift, weak on security and unpatriotic.
Forecasts for a landslide opposition victory could also prompt some riskaverse voters to opt for the LDP,although analysts said there were few signs that this was occurring.
A fuzzy outcome would delay the formation of a new government,although parliament must meet to elect a prime minister within 30 days.
Policy implementation would be difficult, since lawmakers might not necessarily vie for power along clear policy lines. Opinion polls suggest this is unlikely and if the LDP and its junior partner stay in power, they will almost certainly lose the two-thirds majority that has enabled them to enact laws rejected by the opposition-controlled upper chamber.
The policy stalemate would worsen,at least until the 2010 upper house poll. If the deadlock dragged on, the idea of a "grand coalition" among ruling and opposition blocs could be revived as a way to break the deadlock.
One of Prime Minister Taro Aso's predecessors, Yasuo Fukuda, tried to form such a coalition with then-DPJ leader Ichiro Ozawa, but Mr Ozawa's party reject the notion.
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